The US dollar has pulled back just a bit during the course of the trading week, but quite frankly it took intervention from the Bank of Japan, as the market is likely to continue to see the interest rate differential be a major driver of where we go next.
The US dollar had initially tried to rally during the course of the week, but then pulled back significantly to break down below the ¥160 level. At this point, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of noisy behavior, but I think at this juncture, you also have to look at it through the prism of buying on the dips and recognizing that we did just have the Bank of Japan intervene in the market. But quite frankly, they’ve done that before and they can’t change the trajectory of the market, but they can perhaps change the momentum.
And that’s really the goal here, not necessarily to turn this into a downtrend. Because of this, I think the buyers are going to step in and try to take advantage of this, which they already have. And therefore, it’s also worth noting that the CPI numbers, while cooler than anticipated, the PPI numbers on Friday in America were hotter than anticipated.
So really, you have to ask the question, what’s changed at this point? I’m a buyer of dips and continue to get paid at the end of every day to hang on to this pair. As I get paid so much at the end of each session, I think this will remain a staple of my trading going forward, as it has been a huge part of my portfolio. I have no interest in shorting, and I do think it’s probably only a matter of time before we break much higher.
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Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.