The US dollar has rallied rather significantly during the course of the week again against the Japanese yen. Because of this, it appears that we are hell-bent on going to ¥135 rather quickly.
The US dollar has rallied again during the week against the Japanese yen, as we continue to see plenty of upward pressure. In fact, both Thursday and Friday fell, but found buyers willing to pick this market back up. It does not seem to be any real selling pressure of significance, but if you are a longer-term trader you need to find some in order to get a little bit of value. That being said, you certainly would not short this market, even if you knew that it was going to fall next week.
The Bank of Japan continues to flood the market with yen, as they are fighting to keep the 10-year JGB note yielding 25 basis points or less. They have already committed to “buy unlimited amounts” in order to keep this from occurring. Sooner or later, the Bank of Japan will find itself in a situation where they need to either stop this, or give up on the currency altogether. They cannot have it both ways, and therefore something is about to break.
If things stay the way they are, we could see a real massive melt-up in this pair. This is because not only do you have a situation where the Japanese are destroying their own currency, the Federal Reserve got inflationary numbers during the Friday session they guarantee that they will have to remain hawkish for quite some time. As long as that divergence is in place, there’s a really good chance that we go much higher in this pair and each dip should be thought of as a potential opportunity to get long again.
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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.