USD/CHF Fundamental Analysis March 8, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CHF trading at 0.9172 the Swissie seems to have benefited from the worries in Europe. In the US the ADP Payroll report showed a 216,000 increase from a revised 173,000 jobs added in January, and topped the 208,000 new jobs economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters had been expecting. Conditions continue to improve at a moderate pace and are consistent with other indicators suggesting some firming of the labor market. This pick-up is consistent with the recent acceleration of the nation’s gross domestic product which, in the fourth quarter.

 This news should have been enough to give the USD some buoyancy, but it has not been able to overcome the Franc.

Banks’ use of the ECB overnight deposit facility came off from Monday’s record high but remained elevated, reflecting the vast amount of excess liquidity present in the banking system in the wake of the ECB’s longest-ever loans and the approaching end of the reserve period.

Banks deposited EUR816.759 billion with the ECB, the ECB said Wednesday, down slightly from Tuesday’s all-time record of EUR827.534 billion.

The Spanish government Tuesday night said the country’s regions were committed to meeting new budget-cutting targets.

Italian and Spanish government bonds rebounded Wednesday as worries about the fate of Greece’s private-sector bond swap and the potential for a messy default eased, sending yields lower. Italy’s 10-year government bond yield fell 0.09 percentage point to 4.98%. Yields move inversely to prices and a basis point is 1/100 of a percentage point.

Yields on 10-year Spanish government bonds were 2 basis points higher at 5.14%.

Anxieties surrounding the Greek debt restructure gripped global markets. Private investors have until Thursday to participate in a bond swap with the Greek government, which is necessary for the debt-stricken nation to secure its second round of bailout funds and avert a disorderly default.

Australia’s fourth-quarter gross domestic product rose 0.4% against economists’ expectations of a 0.8% gain

March 7, 2012 Economic Release actual v. forecast

 

Scheduled Economic Events for March 8, 2012 (GMT)

06:30     EUR       French Non-Farm Payrolls            -0.1%                    -0.2%    

French Non-farm Payrolls measures the change in the number of employed people, excluding the farming industry and government.

08:15     CHF       CPI (MoM)                                          0.2%                      -0.4%

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.                            

12:00     GBP      Interest Rate Decision                   0.50%                   0.50%

Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy committee members vote on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.                             

12:45     EUR        Interest Rate Decision                  1.00%                   1.00%

The six members of the European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Board and the 16 governors of the euro area central banks vote on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.                      

 13:15    CAD      Housing Starts                                    199K                      198K       

Housing starts measures the change in the annualized number of new residential buildings that began construction during the reported month. It is a leading indicator of strength in the housing sector.   

13:30     USD      Initial Jobless Claims                      350K                     351K                     

13:30     USD       Continuing Jobless Claims            3385K                 3402K     

Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week. Continuing Jobless Claims measures the number of unemployed individuals who qualify for benefits under unemployment insurance.       

14:00     CAD      Interest Rate Decision                   1.00%                    1.00%                   

Bank of Canada (BOC) governing council members come to a consensus on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Mar 08  16:00  US Announces auctions of 3Y Notes

Mar 12, 10Y Notes on Mar 13 & 30Y Bonds on Mar 14

Mar 08  16:30  Italy   Details BOT auction on Mar 13

Mar 09  11:00  Belgium  OLO mini bond auction

Mar 09  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Mar 14