USD/CNY Fundamental Forecast – April 14, 2016

The USD/CNY strengthened on Wednesday to finish at 6.47373, up 0.00144 or +0.02%. The central parity rate of the Chinese currency renminbi, or the Yuan, strengthened 25 basis points to 6.4591 against the U.S. Dollar, according to the China Foreign Exchange Trading System.

China’s trade picture staged a major turnaround in March, with exports rising at the fastest clip since last February, official data revealed on Wednesday.

Dollar-denominated exports rose 11.5 percent on-year, recovering from a 25.4 percent slump hit in February that marked a seven-year trough. Imports meanwhile fell an annual 13.8 percent, unchanged from February. That left China with a surplus of $29.86 billion for the month, compared with February’s $32.59 billion surplus.

The bullish data sent both the Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng Index nearly 2 percent higher. According to pre-report estimates, economists had expected a 2.5 percent annual rise for exports and a 10.2 percent decline for imports, predicting a trade surplus of $30.85 billion.

Separately, Yuan-denominated exports climbed 18.7 percent on-year, from a 20.6 percent drop in February. Yuan-denominated imports fell an annual 1.7 percent, slower than the previous month’s 8 percent decline.

Wednesday’s data follows other indicators from earlier in the month that suggest the world’s second-largest economy may be on the mend after recent concerns surrounding capital outflows and a volatile Yuan, or renminbi. This should come as no surprise given that authorities have been stimulating the economy quite aggressively with direct stimulus and interest rate and reserve ratio requirement cuts.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each asset we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which covers the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins. Daily we share any new events, forecasts or analysis that affect the current day. To achieve a full accurate understanding it is important that you study all of our data and analysis as a whole.

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Thursday, April 14, 2016

 Government Bond Auctions

Date Time       Country           Auction

5% 2025 & Sek 2bn 1% 2026 bonds

Apr 13 11:10 Italy Eur 3-3.5bn 0.1% Apr 2019 BTP

Apr 13 11:15 Switzerland Holds bond auction

Apr 13 11:30 UK Gbp 1.75bn 3.5% 2045 bond

Apr 13 19:00 US $20bn 1.625% Feb 2026 bond

Apr 14 12:00 Ireland Holds bond auction

Apr 14 17:20 Sweden Details of I/L auction on Feb 21

Apr 14 19:00 US $12bn 2.5% Feb 2046 bond

Apr 18 11:00 Belgium Holds OLO auction

Apr 18 13:00 Norway Details of bond auction on Apr 20

Apr 20 11:05 Norway Holds bond auction

Apr 20 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn 0.5% Feb 2026 Bund

Apr 20 17:20 Italy Details of BTPei auction

Apr 20 17:20 Sweden Details of bond auction on Apr 27

Apr 21 10:30 Spain Holds bond auction

Apr 21 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

Apr 21 11:50 France Holds bond auction

Apr 21 19:00 US Holds 5-year TIPS auction

Apr 22 17:20 Italy Announces details bond auction