USD/JPY Weekly Fundamental Analysis January 13 – 17, 2014 Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The USD/JPY ended the week at 104.11 well within its trading range of the week. Japan saw a slew of data which supported the push by the Bank of Japan of easy money. The widening trade deficit in Japan may limit the downside risk for the USDJPY as it dampens the prospects for an export-led recovery, and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may come under increased pressure to further embark on its easing cycle as the weakening outlook for growth undermines Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s pledge to achieve the 2% target for inflation by 2015. In turn, BoJ board member Sayuri Shirai, one of the three dissenters at the December 19 meeting, recently argued that ‘additional monetary easing measures should be taken without hesitation so as not to jeopardize the BoJ’s credibility,’ and we may see a growing rift within the central bank as the region faces a slowing recovery. The U.S. dollar gave up gains on Friday, pushing it to a weekly loss against major rivals, after the American economy in December saw the smallest monthly job gain in three years.

The economy created 74,000 jobs last month, sharply lower than the gain of 193,000 expected by economists polled by MarketWatch. The December increase was the smallest since the beginning of 2011. The report also showed the unemployment rate dropped to 6.7% from 7%.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Historical: From 2011 to present

Highest: 105.44 on Jan 2, 2014

Average: 83.18 over this period

Lowest: 75.58 on Oct 31, 2011

Major Economic Events for the week of January 6 – 10 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD