VanEck Predicts APT and SUI to Skyrocket Over 200% – How Likely Is That?

VanEck predicts that Sui could reach $16 and Aptos $22 by the end of the year, representing 326% and 201% gains, respectively. The report highlights that both blockchains, developed by former Meta engineers, utilize the MOVE programming language for faster and more secure smart contract execution. 

Compared to Ethereum, Sui and Aptos offer superior transaction processing, likened to multiple chefs working simultaneously rather than a single chef handling orders one by one. Sui, in particular, is expected to benefit from higher transaction volumes and an active ecosystem.

Where do These Targets Come From?

VanEck’s projections for Sui (SUI) and Aptos (APT) reaching $16 and $22 respectively by the end of 2025 are based on a comprehensive analysis of several factors:

Market Capitalization Forecast:

VanEck anticipates the total market capitalization of smart contract platforms (SCPs) to grow to approximately $1.1 trillion by the end of 2025, up from the current $770 billion. This projection is derived from a regression analysis correlating the growth of the U.S. M2 money supply with SCP market capitalization.

Market Share Estimation:

Currently, Move-based blockchains like Sui and Aptos hold a combined market share of about 2.7% in the SCP sector. VanEck forecasts this share to increase to 6.5% by the end of 2025.

Individual Valuations:

Sui (SUI): Projected to capture 5.5% of the SCP market, equating to a market capitalization of $61 billion. With an expected 3 billion tokens unlocked by January 2025, this results in a target price of approximately $16 per token, representing a 326% increase from its current price of $3.75.

Aptos (APT): Expected to secure 1% of the SCP market, corresponding to a market capitalization of $11 billion. With 507 million tokens anticipated to be unlocked, this leads to a target price of around $22 per token, indicating a 201% rise from its current price of $7.30.

These valuations are underpinned by VanEck’s analysis of each platform’s technological advancements, scalability, ecosystem development, and potential to attract a growing user base. 

It’s important to note that these projections are based on current data and assumptions, and actual market conditions may lead to different outcomes. Investors should consider these forecasts as part of a broader investment strategy and conduct thorough due diligence.

APT Price Analysis 

APT is currently in a corrective phase, forming what appears to be an ABC correction after peaking at $15.30 on Dec. 8. The price recently reached a key support level around $6.68 (0.786 Fibonacci retracement), which aligns with the final leg of wave C. If this level holds, a bullish reversal could be imminent, targeting higher Fibonacci extension levels.

The RSI is at oversold levels, suggesting that downward momentum is weakening. If a new impulsive wave starts, potential resistance lies at $9.05 (0.236 Fibonacci level) and $12.89 (0.618 Fibonacci level). However, failure to hold above $6.68 could see the price decline further toward the next major support at $4.78.

Considering the VanEck price target of $22, that would amount to the 1.618 Fib extension level, which usually comes as the wave 3 target. If we saw the first two sub-waves since August last year, there is a strong potential for this projection to come true. 

SUI Price Analysis

SUI is currently in a corrective wave 4 retracement after completing an impulsive wave 3 rally to an all-time high of $5.40 on Jan 3. The retracement found support around the 0.382 Fibonacci level at $3.50 and is now traded around $4.10. 

The larger Elliott Wave structure suggests that the asset is in a five-wave impulsive phase, with the next upward move likely forming wave 5.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is showing signs of bullish divergence, which could indicate a reversal from the current correction phase. If wave 4 has already bottomed, the next bullish leg could push prices toward Fibonacci extension targets of $5.95 (0.5 level) and $7.35 (0.786 level). However, failure to hold above $3.51 could lead to a deeper retracement toward $2.94.

This should be the final wave, and although it might get extended and be the longest, it still wouldn’t have the potential to reach the $16 in this advancement. 

Conclusion 

VanEck’s price targets for SUI and APT are ambitious but not entirely unrealistic if bullish momentum sustains. APT’s projection aligns with Fibonacci extensions, making it feasible if a strong wave 3 emerges. However, SUI’s target appears more extended than the current Elliott Wave structure suggests. While both assets have strong fundamentals, achieving these price levels by 2025 will depend on broader market trends and sustained adoption.