What Can Derail Bitcoin’s Rally to $80,000+?

We Have Been Bullish for Over a Year

For those new to our updates and as a reminder to regular readers, we have been bullish on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) since at least mid-September last year. See here. We even presented a forecast for 2024 (see here), where we concluded,

“We have been Bullish on BTC for quite some time … However, our Bullish scenario is entirely invalidated below $25K. Only when that happens will we change our overall, longer-term Bullish POV, …, based on BTC’s past cycles, made up of four more minor phases, it is currently in the “Mid Bull” phase and thus close to the next Bull run, which can target $100-200+K by the end of 2025.”

Though we cannot foresee every twist and turn beforehand, and the March through September period was confusing at times, we stayed the course and kept our premium members and readers on the right side of the trade. Since September, we have been tracking BTC’s advance in, preferably, what’s called in the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP), an “Ending Diagonal.” In our previous update from three weeks ago, see here, we found

“… However, the orange W-b may not be complete, and a break below the October 4 low can usher in the option shown in Figure 2 below. It suggests we see another small (blue) W-c lower, equal in length to the blue W-a, targeting the lower end of the ideal (orange) W-b zone at $58K. From there, the orange W-c setup can then be tried again.”

Fast-forward to October 10, when Bitcoin briefly broke the October 4 low, bottomed right at the expected level ($58869 vs. 58K), and has rallied since. Thus, the alternate path we presented materialized in which the orange W-b was completed protracted, and the orange W-c is now underway. See Figure 1 below.

Thus, we continue to prefer the ED wave count until proven otherwise. This requires Bitcoin’s price to stay above the October 10 low on any pullback, with a severe warning below last week’s low (October 23 at $65171). Namely, the orange W-c of the grey W-iii is underway and is subdividing into smaller waves: tiel blue W-1, 2, 3, 4, and 5). We anticipate the orange W-c to ideally reach $74.8-78.4K, possibly as high as $82K on any unforeseeable wave extensions.

Although, at this stage, it is doubtful if the Bulls will lose control, and we have our colored warning levels to tell us that is the case, with the first (blue) warning for the Bulls at today’s open (~$70K), we could still see the high-$40Ks per the most bearish. But in our opinion, it is the least likely option, and we are therefore not showing it. It’s just an “insurance policy.”

How Do You Use this Work to Your Advantage?

Well, simple. We have been correctly Bullish for over a year and able to forecast the price action over the last months reliably and accurately using the ED’s path. Therefore, it remains our preferred POV, contingent on the price holding above the October 3 low, with a severe warning on a drop below the October 23 low. For example, these price levels can be used as stop (loss) levels. We always trade the direction of the preferred view, while the alternative EW counts are only used as our “insurance policy” if we speculate wrongly. Ultimately, we are all speculators—people who guess about something uncertain.