There is no denying that the current macroeconomic backdrop is fuelling a “perfect storm” for Gold positioning the precious metal firmly on track for its biggest and best year yet.
Having previously scored 39 new all-time highs throughout 2024 – matching the peak of the Global Financial Crisis in 2011 – the price of Gold in US Dollars has continued to build on last year’s momentum – taking its count of record highs to a whopping total of 62 new all-time highs, within a space of 16 months to the present day.
Put another way, that’s the equivalent of Gold hitting four new all-time record highs – every single month consecutively for the last 16 months in a row.
Last week, Gold enjoyed its best week in history, surging to a new all-time record highs as traders rushed to the safety of one of the only havens left in global financial markets in the wake of Donald Trump’s tariff chaos.
On Friday, Gold prices skyrocketing to a new all-time record high of $3,245 an ounce, climbing over 8% in the short space of 3-days to post its biggest weekly gain, since the Covid-19 pandemic in March 2020.
Following President Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariff announcement on 2nd April – Global Equity markets have been in a state of chaos, swinging from panic to relief and back to panic as President Trump flip-flops on tariffs.
Meanwhile, the Bond market has been defying Trump, with long-term yields nudging higher to catastrophic levels last week – forcing him to call a 90-day truce of tariff hikes.
Typically, in times of a Stock Market Crisis, U.S Treasury yields plunge and the U.S dollar surges. But now, the opposite is happening. Yields are spiking and the U.S dollar is tumbling.
The world’s new hot trade is sell U.S Equities, sell U.S Bonds and sell the U.S Dollar. In other words, the big trade right now is “Sell America and Buy Gold”.
A broad sell-off in U.S equities, Treasuries and the U.S Dollar has shaken confidence in American assets, prompting traders to pile into Gold at a record pace.
As we head into the middle of April – Gold prices are now up over 24% from their opening price of almost $2,000 an ounce at start of this year. But even more remarkably, Gold prices have now chalked up a staggering gain of more than 97%, since October 2022.
And this could just the beginning!
In recent days, a long list of the world’s most powerful Wall Street banks have raised their price forecasts, with extremely bullish calls for Gold prices to top new all-time record highs throughout the year.
The two most bullish forecasts come from French bank Société Générale – who see the potential for Gold prices to exceed $4,000 an ounce in 2025. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs has gone one further by calling for Gold to surpass $4,500 an ounce within the next 12 months under extreme market conditions.
Phil Carr is co-founder and the Head of Trading at The Gold & Silver Club, an international Commodities Trading, Research and Data-Intelligence firm.