The most highly anticipated week of the year and quite possibly the most pivotal moment in monetary policy history is finally here – as the Federal Reserve prepares to announce its first interest rate cut since March 2020.
With a September rate cut guaranteed, the debate has now shifted to the size of the Fed’s first rate cut when their two-day monetary policy meeting concludes on Wednesday.
There is no denying that the Federal Reserve faces a close call on whether to start its rate-cutting cycle with a traditional quarter-point reduction or to front-load rate cuts with a larger than expected half-point move.
The stakes are definitely high and the Fed cannot risk getting this decision wrong, like they did back in 2021 with their misguided insistence on “transitory inflation” – as it could ultimately make or break the economy.
In the lead-up to this week’s major market-moving decision – a long list of the world’s most powerful Wall Street banks have raised their bets on the Federal Reserve making an aggressive 50 basis point cut on Wednesday, with traders now putting the odds of a jumbo cut at about 64%.
The significance of this cannot be understated – especially when considering it was only a week ago when traders were pricing in an 18% chance of a half-point cut.
The potential for a larger-than-expected rate cut from the Fed sent Gold prices skyrocketing to a new all-time record high of $2,590 an ounce on Monday, surpassing the precious metals previous all-time high of $2,585 an ounce reached in the previous trading session on Friday.
Gold has been on a parabolic run since last October – rallying from near the $1,800 level to score consecutive back-to-back all-time highs – not once, not twice, not three times, but on 33 separate occasions, so far this year.
Yes, you read that correctly. That’s 33 all-time record highs, so far this year.
And this could just the beginning!
Gold’s record-breaking run has been nothing short of impressive. Never before in history have we seen the precious metal score multiple all-time record highs in such a short space of time.
According to GSC Commodity Intelligence – “Gold is not just making new highs in 2024, but it’s really breaking out. That’s a classic tell-tale sign that we are just in the early stages of a “new historic Supercycle for Gold”.
Whichever way you look at it, one thing is clear. The stars appear to be aligning for Gold and it won’t take much for prices to reach $3,000 an ounce, if not exceed that mark – a lot sooner than anyone expects!
Phil Carr is co-founder and the Head of Trading at The Gold & Silver Club, an international Commodities Trading, Research and Data-Intelligence firm.