Will SUI’s $300M-Plus Token Unlock in May Crash Prices Again?

Sui (SUI) is staring down a $332 million token unlock in May, raising fears of a fresh price crash similar to previous sharp declines after major unlock events.

$300M-Plus Token Unlocks Have Been Bearish For SUI Lately

Earlier this year, Sui witnessed sharp price declines following unlocks crossing the $300 million mark.

On Jan. 1, the network released approximately $335 million in tokens when the price hovered near $4.11. Just a month later, on Feb. 1, 2025, another $300 million worth of SUI tokens unlocked, again near the $4 mark.

The impact was swift and brutal.

By April, SUI’s price had plummeted to as low as $1.92, representing a more than 50% decline from its January levels. This period coincided with two additional unlocks worth around $419 million, compounding selling pressure on the market.

Importantly, the collapse wasn’t driven by supply dynamics alone. The broader crypto market faced a sharp risk-off shift during this time, fueled by Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs and escalating global trade tensions.

Investor appetite for risk assets—including newer layer-1 tokens like Sui—deteriorated sharply as US recession fears grew. As a result, even moderate selling pressure from unlocks had an outsized impact on SUI’s price.

However, sentiment appears to be shifting. Recent weeks have shown early signs of a decoupling between U.S. stocks and crypto assets, with Bitcoin (BTC) and select altcoins rallying even as equities face pressure.

If this trend strengthens, it could help Sui absorb the upcoming unlock better than in previous cycles.

SUI Technical Analysis Suggests Another 13-20% Gains

SUI/USDT is nearing $4.24, the breakout target of its prevailing falling wedge pattern discussed in FXEmpire’s analysis last week. As of April 28, the target was about 13.75% up from the current price levels of $3.73.

Looking broadly, SUI has flipped the critical 1.618 Fibonacci extension level (~$3.01) into support during the ongoing rally. It is now targeting the 2.618 Fib line at approximately $4.64.

This zone lines up closely with prior psychological resistances.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has surged above 60, indicating strengthening bullish momentum that has not yet been overbought. Also, SUI is trading well above its 50-3D EMA and 200-3D EMA, which are now curving upward, a classic signal of trend reversal and continuation.

If momentum persists, a move toward the $4.64 target could materialize in the coming days or weeks.

However, short-term pullbacks toward the $3.40–$3.20 region (recent breakout zones) could occur before the next leg higher, offering potential reaccumulation opportunities.