XRP and a Return to $0.40 in the Hands of Washington and Judge Torres

Key Insights:

• On Saturday, XRP resumed the downward trend, falling 1.44% to end the day at $0.42440.
• Investor jitters about the US debt ceiling impasse and SEC v Ripple anxiety left XRP at sub-$0.43.
• The technical indicators remain bearish, signaling a return to $0.40.

On Saturday, XRP fell by 1.44%. Partially reversing a 2.25% gain from Friday, XRP ended the day at $0.42440. Despite the bearish session, XRP avoided sub-$0.42 for the first time in four sessions.

Bearish throughout the session, XRP fell from an opening price of $0.43032 to an early afternoon low of $0.42352. However, steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.4166, XRP revisited the $0.4275 handle before easing back.

The US Debt Ceiling Impasse and SEC v Ripple Anxiety Weighed

It was a quiet Saturday for the XRP Community. There were no SEC v Ripple case updates to influence. The lack of Court rulings and the brewings of a new week tested investor resilience. Investors may deem Judge Torres’s silence as negative vis-à-vis Ripple’s Summary Judgment Reply Brief.

While there were no updates, Ripple Chief Legal Officer Stuart Alderoty shared his views on the SEC and the Howey Test, saying,

“In 1946, in its Sub Ct ‘Howey’ brief, the SEC unsuccessfully argued that an investment in a ‘common enterprise’ was unnecessary provided there was a ‘community of interest.’ The SEC was wrong then and it is still wrong now. Common Interest ≠ Common Enterprise.”

However, external market forces remained the key driver, with the US debt ceiling impasse weighing on XRP and the broader crypto market. It is plausible investors have yet to fully price in a US default and the implications for the US and global economies, leaving XRP at risk of another sharp reversal.

The Day Ahead

It is a quiet day ahead for XRP. There are no US economic indicators for investors to consider. However, US debt ceiling-related news and SEC v Ripple case-related chatter will move the dial.

Investors should also monitor SEC activity and Binance and Coinbase (COIN)-related news.

With a banking sector crisis brewing and the US government failing to raise the debt ceiling, regulators and lawmakers may target the digital asset space to change the narrative.

XRP Price Action

At the time of writing, XRP was down 0.36% to $0.42286. A mixed start to the day saw XRP rise to an early high of $0.42500 before falling to a low of $0.42154.

XRP Technical Indicators

Resistance & Support Levels

XRP needs to move through the $0.4261 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.4286 and the Saturday high of $0.43032. A return to $0.43 would signal a bullish session. However, SEC v Ripple chatter and the US debt ceiling must support a breakout session.

In the case of an extended rally, XRP would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.4329 and resistance at $0.4350. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.4397.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.4218 in play. However, barring another crypto event or risk-off-fueled sell-off, XRP should avoid sub-$0.4150. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.4193 should limit the downside. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.4125.

The EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent bearish signals.

At the time of writing, XRP sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.43417. The 50-day EMA slid back from the 200-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA falling back from the 200-day EMA. The EMAs delivered bearish signals.

A move through R1 ($0.4286) would support a breakout from R2 ($0.4329) to give the bulls a run at the 50-day EMA ($0.43417). However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA ($0.43417) would leave S1 ($0.4218) and sub-$0.42 Major Support Levels in view. A move through the 50-day EMA would send a bullish signal.