XRP and XLM Elliott Wave Analysis: Bearish Price Action Persist

XRP Price Analysis

The 4-hour XRP chart illustrates a completed five-wave impulsive structure, with wave (v) terminating near $2.50 on Jan 4. This resulted from a breakout from the long-lasting descending triangle to a low of $2 on Dec. 30.

After this peak, the price entered a corrective ABC wave sequence, with wave (c) likely concluding at the $2.20 area where the significant Fibonacci levels offer support. A bounce followed, causing another uptrend to a higher high of $2.60 on Jan. 11.

However after gaining slightly higher values than before we saw a strong descending move, pushing the price to the $2.30 area. Currently, the price is still in a downfall and is on the lookout for support at the key Fib levels.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) displayed declining momentum as the price approached a higher high, signaling potential bearish exhaustion. The chart structure indicates a possible resumption of the uptrend if critical supports hold.

The corrective wave’s completion aligns with a potential resurgence in bullish momentum. It could spark the next impulse wave if the price sustains above $2.18 (0.618 Fibonacci retracement).

The initial upside target lies at $2.508 (previous wave high), with further potential toward $2.772, the 1.272 Fibonacci extension. However, failure to hold above $2.20 may lead to further declines, with $2.188 serving as the critical pivot point.

Key Levels to Watch

• Immediate Resistance: $2.508 (Wave (v) high).
• Key Support: $2.203 (0.618 Fibonacci retracement).
• Upside Target: $2.772 (1.272 Fibonacci extension).
• Invalidation Zone: Below $2.188, signaling further bearish continuation.

XLM Price Analysis

The 4-hour XLM chart highlights a completed ABCDE corrective wave structure within a descending wedge pattern, culminating at a low of $0.30 on Dec. 31.

This marked the start of a new impulsive wave (i-v). Wave (i) extended to $0.48 but faced resistance at the key horizontal resistance zone. A downturn was made at first with slow momentum to a low of $0.39 on Jan. 9.

A new uptrend began but ended at a lower high of $0.45 interacting with the lower bound of the horizontal resistance. Currently, wave (ii) appears to be forming a retracement, testing support at 0.5 Fibonacci retracement amid RSI suggesting neutral momentum.

With the RSI approaching the oversold zone, there is slightly more room to the downside, hinting at the potential for an upturn shortly after testing some of the key support levels. This is why two scenarios could be seen depending on the interaction result.

If wave (ii) concludes above $0.38 level, the next impulsive wave (iii) could push XLM toward $0.479 (wave (i) high) and higher targets such as $0.513 (1.618 Fibonacci extension).

A failure to hold above $0.378 (0.618 Fibonacci retracement) could indicate further corrective pressure, possibly retesting $0.351 (0.786 Fibonacci retracement) or even invalidating the bullish scenario.

Alternatively, we can see the downtrend continuing, leading to a lower low compared to the one in December. That would mean its last rise was the part of the larger corrective structure and more downside pressure is ahead.

Key Levels to Watch

• Immediate Resistance: $0.441 (0.236 Fibonacci level).
• Key Support: $0.398 (0.382 Fibonacci retracement).
• Critical Support: $0.378 (0.618 Fibonacci retracement).
• Upside Target: $0.479 (Wave (i) high) and $0.513 (1.618 Fibonacci extension).

Conclusion

XRP is at a pivotal stage, with its current price action suggesting the end of the ABC correction. RSI trends and Fibonacci levels highlight key zones to monitor for either an upward breakout or further retracement.

Stellar Lumens shows signs of bullish potential as it begins an impulsive wave sequence. Holding key Fibonacci retracement supports will be crucial for sustaining this uptrend, while RSI and breakout confirmation above $0.441 will solidify the outlook.