XRP and XLM Elliott Wave Analysis: Interaction With Key Resistance

The prices of Stellar and Ripple have recently fell to being oversold, making an interaction with significant support points. Since then some early bullish signs were seen with XLM gaining 13% while XRP rose by 20%.

Despite the seen bullishness, they are still within their bearish structures. The prices are putting pressure on resistance points whose breakout will provide the first significant confirmation of the coming bull phase. But will they make a breakout or get rejected?

Stellar (XLM) Price Analysis

Stellar (XLM) completed a bullish breakout from a descending wedge, leading to a sharp rally from $0.32 to $0.45. This move confirms the end of a corrective phase and the start of a new Elliott Wave sequence. The price now faces critical resistance between $0.45-$0.50, marked by the 0.5 Fibonacci extension level, which needs to be breached for further upside.

The Elliott Wave count indicates XLM is in wave (iii) of a potential five-wave impulse. A breakout above $0.50 could see prices rally toward $0.70 (1.618 Fib extension) and higher at $0.78 (2.0 Fib extension). However, a rejection could result in a pullback, with support levels at $0.42-$0.37 providing potential re-entry points.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows a recovery from oversold conditions since Jan. 27, suggesting that a larger recovery could be on the way. A failure to hold above $0.42 could invalidate the bullish scenario, leading to a deeper retracement toward $0.37. For bullish momentum to sustain, XLM must maintain higher lows above this critical support zone.

If buyers regain momentum and volume confirms a breakout above $0.48, XLM could extend its impulsive structure. The next major resistance lies at $0.70, aligning with historical price zones and Fibonacci projections. Sustained bullish sentiment is crucial to achieving these targets.

Key Levels to Watch

• Resistance: $0.45-$0.48 (0.382-0.5 Fib), $0.70 (1.618 Fib), $0.78 (2.0 Fib).
• Support: $0.42 (0.236 Fib), $0.37 (structural support).
• Invalidation: Below $0.37 weakens the bullish scenario.

Ripple (XRP) Price Analysis

Ripple (XRP) is consolidating within a symmetrical triangle pattern, reflecting indecision between buyers and sellers. After rallying to $3.36 during wave (iii), XRP entered a corrective wave (iv) phase, now consolidating near $3.18. The $3.36-$3.55 zone represents key resistance, aligned with the 0.618 Fibonacci extension level, and must be cleared for upside continuation.

A breakout above $3.55 could initiate wave (v), with targets at $4.08 (1.272 Fib) and $4.47 (1.618 Fib). The RSI is slightly above neutral, indicating room for further upward momentum if buying pressure increases. Failing to break above this resistance could result in a pullback toward $2.93 (0.236 Fib) or lower to $2.67.

The Elliott Wave count suggests wave (v) is likely to extend higher, provided XRP maintains support above $2.93. A failure to hold this level could invalidate the bullish setup, triggering a decline toward $2.67, where structural support aligns with the Fibonacci retracement zone. Volume confirmation will be critical to validate the next leg of the trend.

If XRP successfully breaks out of the triangle, strong bullish sentiment could push prices to $4.08-$4.89, depending on how well momentum sustains. Investors should monitor resistance and RSI divergence for signs of potential reversals or trend continuation.

Key Levels to Watch

• Resistance: $3.36-$3.55 (0.618 Fib), $4.08 (1.272 Fib), $4.47 (1.618 Fib).
• Support: $3.23 (0.5 Fib), $2.93 (0.236 Fib), $2.67 (structural support).
• Invalidation: Below $2.67 weakens bullish potential.