XRP Bears Eye Sub-$0.44 on SEC v Ripple Silence and Recession Fear

Key Insights:

• On Tuesday, XRP rose by 2.02% to end the day at $0.46974.
• A lack of SEC v Ripple updates left XRP in the hands of US banking sector woes and the broader crypto market.
• However, the technical indicators remain bearish, signaling a return to sub-$0.42.

On Tuesday, XRP rose by 2.02%. Reversing a 0.96% fall from Monday, XRP ended the day at $0.46974. Despite the bullish session, XRP came up short of $0.50 for the sixth consecutive session.

Tracking the broader market, XRP fell to a mid-morning low of $0.45102. Steering clear of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.4435, XRP rose to a high of $0.47162. However, falling short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.4812, XRP eased back to end the session at sub-$0.47.

US Banking Sector Woes and Corporate Earnings Delivered Support

There were no SEC v Ripple case updates to influence on Tuesday. The lack of court rulings left XRP in the hands of the US economic and earnings calendars and banking sector-related news.

US consumer confidence figures weighed on investor sentiment, with the survey pointing to a US economic recession. UPS (UPS) earnings results added to the bearish mood.

However, sliding deposits at First Republic Bank (FRC) and upbeat Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) earnings supported a late rebound.

Easing bets on Fed interest rate hikes in May and June were also crypto-friendly.

According to the CME FedWatchTool, the probability of a 25-basis point May interest rate hike fell from 90.5% to 76.1% on Tuesday. Significantly, the chances of a June hike declined from 24.7% to 9.2%, supporting the bullish end to the Tuesday session.

Nonetheless, the upside was modest. The lack of Court rulings has left XRP at sub-$0.50 as hopes of Court rulings this week begin to fade.

The Day Ahead

Updates from the ongoing SEC v Ripple case will remain the focal point, with investors mindful that a ruling could come at any time. US regulatory activity and lawmaker chatter will continue to draw interest, with Binance and Coinbase (COIN)-related news areas of interest.

Another day of silence from the Courts would give the US economic and earnings calendars more influence.

US core durable goods orders will influence the afternoon. A larger-than-expected fall in orders would fuel the increasing fear of a US recession.

However, the US earnings calendar will also draw interest. Big names on the US earnings calendar include Meta Platforms (META).

XRP Price Action

At the time of writing, XRP was up 0.01% to $0.46978. A mixed start to the day saw XRP rise to an early high of $0.47132 before falling to a low of $0.46768.

XRP Technical Indicators

Resistance & Support Levels

XRP needs to avoid the $0.4641 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.4772. A breakout from the Tuesday high of $0.47162 would signal a bullish session. However, US economic indicators, earnings, and SEC v Ripple chatter must support a breakout.

In the case of an extended rally, XRP would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.4847. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.5053.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.4566 into play. However, barring a risk-off-fueled extended sell-off, XRP should avoid sub-$0.4450 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.4435. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.4229.

The EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent bearish signals.

At the time of writing, XRP sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.47525. After the Monday bearish cross, the 50-day EMA pulled further back from the 200-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA narrowing to the 200-day EMA. The EMAs delivered bearish signals.

A move through the 50-day ($0.47525) would support a breakout from R1 ($0.4772) and the 200-day EMA ($0.47924) to target R2 ($0.4847) and the 100-day EMA ($0.48515). However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA ($0.47525) would leave S1 ($0.4566) in view. A move through the 50-day EMA would send a bullish signal.