XRP Bears Eye Sub-$0.50 as Hinman Docs Fail to Force a Settlement

Key Insights:

• On Tuesday, XRP fell by 1.14% to end the day at $0.51926.
• Investors showed a bearish response to the unredacted versions of the Hinman speech-related docs that failed to deliver a settlement.
• The technical indicators send bearish signals, bringing sub-$0.50 into view.

On Tuesday, XRP fell by 1.14%. Reversing a 0.83% gain from Monday, XRP ended the day at $0.51926. Despite the bearish session, XRP avoided sub-$0.50 for the third consecutive session.

After a range-bound start to the day, XRP surged to a late morning high of $0.56500. XRP broke through the Major Resistance Levels before tumbling to a mid-afternoon low of $0.50482. XRP briefly fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.5136 before ending the day at $0.51926.

Hinman Documents Failed to Usher an SEC Response

It was a busy Tuesday session. The ongoing SEC v Ripple case was back in the spotlight, with the Hinman speech-related documents in focus.

While the markets trawl through the documents, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse had this to say,

“It’s absolutely unconscionable that a regulator – when presented with so much pushback on what he was about to say / how he compiled this fake ‘test’ in the first place – decided to move forward anyway and throw an entire industry into chaos.”

Garlinghouse added,

“Seeing the depth to which the SEC has essentially weaponized the lack of regulatory clarity through enforcement actions since this speech was given – it’s no surprise that we can bluff on their claims to ‘just come in and register’ as nothing but in bad faith.”

Ripple Chief Legal Officer Stuart Alderoty shared a summary and his views on the Hinman docs, concluding,

“Hinman’s speech should never again be invoked in any serious discussion about whether a token is or is not a security. Unelected bureaucrats must faithfully apply the law within the constraints of their jurisdiction. They can’t – as Hinman tried – create new law.”

While the speech-related documents reveal plenty, the lack of an SEC response weighed on investor sentiment. Hopes of a settlement faded, with SEC Chair Gary Gensler posting a single tweet on Tuesday that had no linkage to the SEC v Ripple case.

With the SEC staying quiet, the onus returns to Judge Torres and the Courts, leaving the crypto market on tenterhooks for longer. Significantly, an unwillingness to settle means that the SEC would likely appeal a Ripple victory and leave the crypto market in limbo.

US CPI Report and Easing Fed Bets Failed to Deliver a Bullish Session

The US CPI Report failed to deliver a breakout session despite easing bets on a Fed rate hike today.

Market angst over SEC activity and no hope of a shift in the regulatory landscape overshadowed the market-friendly US CPI Report.

The Day Ahead

It is a busy Wednesday session, with US wholesale inflation and the Federal Reserve in focus. While softer wholesale inflation numbers would be market-friendly, the Fed has to deliver a dovish pause to ease bets on a July rate hike.

Beyond the US economic calendar, US lawmaker scrutiny of the Hinman docs would draw interest.

However, SEC v Ripple, SEC v Binance, and SEC-Coinbase (COIN)-related news would also move the dial.

XRP Price Action

At the time of writing, XRP was down 0.99% to $0.51411. A mixed start to the day saw XRP rise to an early high of $0.52019 before falling to a low of $0.51071.

XRP Technical Indicators

Resistance & Support Levels

XRP needs to move through the $0.5297 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.5546 and the Tuesday high of $0.5650. A return to $0.55 would signal an extended breakout session. However, SEC v Ripple chatter and the crypto news wires must support a breakout session.

In the case of an extended rally, XRP would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.5899 and resistance at $0.60. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.6501.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.4944 in play. However, barring a Fed-fueled sell-off, XRP should avoid sub-$0.49 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.4695. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.4093.

The EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent bearish signals.

At the time of writing, XRP sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.51752. The 50-day EMA closed in on the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA narrowing to the 200-day EMA. The EMAs delivered bearish signals.

A move through the 50-day EMA ($0.51742) would support a breakout from R1 ($0.5546) to target R2 ($0.5899) and $0.60. However, a fall through the 100-day ($0.50919) would bring the 200-day EMA ($0.49450) and S1 ($0.4944) into view. A move through the 50-day EMA would send a bullish signal.