XRP Eyes $0.48 on Brad Garlinghouse Optimism Toward the SEC Case

Key Insights:

• On Thursday, XRP gained 0.13% to end the session at $0.45372.
• Fed Fear and the risk of a US default left XRP under pressure, while Brad Garlinghouse delivered late support.
• The technical indicators turned bullish, signaling a return to $0.48.

On Thursday, XRP rose by 0.13%. Partially reversing a 2.68% decline from Wednesday, XRP ended the day at $0.45372. Significantly, XRP revisited sub-$0.45 for the second time in seven sessions.

A bearish start to the day saw XRP fall to an early morning low of $0.44335. XRP fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.4443 before striking a final-hour high of $0.45430. However, falling short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.4633, XRP eased back to end the day at $0.45372.

FED Fear Offset Bullish Brad Garlinghouse Views and Debt Ceiling Talks

It was a quiet Thursday, with no Court rulings from the ongoing SEC v Ripple case to provide direction.

However, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse hit the news wires, announcing a likely Court ruling in weeks rather than months. The Ripple CEO referenced the recent Judge Torres ruling on the Willian Hinman speech-related documents set for disclosure on June 13.

While the optimism was bullish, rising bets on a Fed interest rate hike in June and the ongoing risk of a US default limited the upside.

US economic indicators drove bets of a 25-basis point Fed interest rate hike in June.

Initial jobless claims increased from 225k to 229k versus a forecasted 250k. Upward revisions to the Q1 GDP numbers were also bullish. The US economy expanded by 1.3% in Q1 versus a prelim 1.1% and 2.6% growth in Q4.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25-basis point Fed interest rate hike in June jumped from 36.4% to 52.2% on Thursday.

While reports of progress toward a debt ceiling deal were also bullish, investors remained cautious, with investors mindful of the risk of another collapse in talks.

The Day Ahead

It is a busier Friday session for XRP and the broader crypto market. US core durable goods orders, Core PCE Price Index, personal spending/income, and Michigan consumer sentiment numbers will be in focus.

The Core PCE Price Index numbers will likely have the most impact. Sticky inflation would fuel bets of a 25-basis point Fed interest rate hike in June and ease expectations of an H2 interest rate cut.

Economists forecast the Core PCE Price Index to increase by 4.6% year-over-year in April versus 4.6% in March.

However, US debt ceiling-related news will remain a focal point, with failure to reach a deal likely to weigh on XRP and the broader crypto market.

Investors should also track SEC v Ripple updates and Binance and Coinbase (COIN)-related news. While US debt ceiling news will influence, Court rulings from the SEC v Ripple case would have more impact.

XRP Price Action

At the time of writing, XRP was up 1.39% to $0.46001. A mixed start to the day saw XRP fall to an early low of $0.45276 before rising to a high of $0.46735. XRP broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.4576 and briefly through the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.4614.

XRP Technical Indicators

Resistance & Support Levels

XRP needs to avoid a fall through R1 and the $0.4505 pivot to retarget the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.4614 and the morning high of $0.46735. A return to $0.4650 would signal an extended breakout session. However, SEC v Ripple updates and US debt ceiling-related news must support a breakout session.

In the case of an extended rally, XRP would likely test the Third Major Resistance Level (R3) at $0.4724 and resistance at $0.48.

However, a fall through R1 and the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.4466 into play. However, barring a crypto event or risk-off-fueled sell-off, XRP should avoid sub-$0.44 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.4395. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.4286.

The EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent bullish signals.

At the time of writing, XRP sat above the 200-day EMA, currently at $0.45523. The 50-day EMA converged on the 200-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA narrowing to the 200-day EMA. The EMAs delivered bullish signals.

A hold above R1 ($0.4576) and the 200-day EMA ($0.45523) would support a breakout from R2 ($0.4614) to target R3 ($0.4724) and $0.48. However, a fall through R1 ($0.4576) and the EMAs would bring S1 ($0.4466) into view. A fall through the 50-day EMA ($0.45480) would send a bearish signal.