XRP's future hinges on SEC v Ripple case, with potential for appeal stretching into 2025.
On Wednesday, XRP rose by 1.47%. After a 0.02% gain on Tuesday, XRP ended the day at $0.6279.
XRP recovered from session losses on Wednesday, with dovish FOMC projections driving demand for riskier assets. Significantly, XRP rose to a session high of $0.6351 as investors responded to less hawkish interest rate projections for 2024.
However, XRP gains were modest relative to the broader market. Bitcoin (BTC) rallied 3.47% to end the Wednesday session at $42,954. The total crypto market cap gained 2.84%, ending the day at $1,571 billion.
Increasing regulatory scrutiny and concerns about the SEC appealing the Programmatic Sales ruling capped gains.
There were no SEC v Ripple case-related updates to influence investor sentiment on Wednesday. The lack of news left investors to consider prospects of the SEC appealing the ruling on the Programmatic Sales of XRP.
In July, Judge Torres ruled that XRP was not a security when sold programmatically on digital asset exchanges or through trading algorithms. In response, the SEC filed a motion for interlocutory appeal. Judge Torres rejected the motion in October. The court ruling meant that the SEC must wait until the conclusion of the SEC v Ripple case to file an appeal.
Notably, the SEC has expedited the case against Ripple since the court rejection. The SEC and Ripple are currently progressing through remedies-related discovery. The remaining charges in the SEC v Ripple case relate to the sale of XRP to institutional investors.
US case law could favor Ripple in terms of a final penalty. However, the SEC may be more interested in reversing the Programmatic Sales ruling. The SEC v Ripple case will likely reach its conclusion in the summer of 2024, if not before. From there, an appeal could extend into 2025.
Uncertainty could grip XRP investors until an appeal ruling or regulatory framework addresses the issues surrounding the classification of cryptos.
XRP remained above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, affirming bullish price signals.
An XRP move through the $0.6354 resistance level would give the bulls a run at the $0.7047 resistance level.
US lawmaker commentary, SEC activity, and SEC v Crypto case-related news are focal points.
However, a break below the 50-day EMA would bring the $0.60 handle and the $0.5835 support level into play.
The 14-day RSI reading, 49.34, suggests a fall to the $0.5835 support level before entering oversold territory.
On the 4-hourly, XRP sat below the 50-day EMA while holding above the 200-day EMA, sending bearish near-term but bullish longer-term price signals.
An XRP break above the 50-day EMA would support a run at the $0.6354 resistance level.
However, an XRP fall through the 200-day EMA would give the bears a run at the $0.60 handle and the $0.5835 support level.
The 4-hourly RSI, with a reading of 48.46, suggests an XRP drop to the $0.60 handle before entering oversold territory.
With over 20 years of experience in the finance industry, Bob has been managing regional teams across Europe and Asia and focusing on analytics across both corporate and financial institutions. Currently he is covering developments relating to the financial markets, including currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes, and global equities.