Uncertainty surrounding the SEC's interlocutory appeal and Ripple's opposition filing could dictate XRP's price trajectory and market sentiment.
XRP fell by 0.46% on Saturday. Partially reversing a 1.43% gain from Friday, XRP ended the day at $0.5232. Despite the bearish session, XRP avoided sub-$0.51 for the third time in four sessions.
It was a quiet start to the weekend. There were no SEC v Ripple case-related updates for investors to consider. The lack of updates left XRP in the hands of the crypto news wires.
On Friday, the US Treasury Department proposed new rules relating to taxation across the digital asset space. The new 1099-DA form allows crypto market participants to establish if they have unpaid taxes. Additionally, the Treasury Department proposal imposes traditional broker sales reporting rules on digital asset brokers.
The Treasury Department opened the proposed rules to the public for input and feedback. According to the Treasury Department press release,
“The US Department of the Treasury and the Inland Revenue Service (IRS) today released proposed regulations on the sale and exchange of digital assets by brokers in an effort to crack down on tax cheats while helping law-abiding taxpayers know how much they own on the sale or exchange of digital assets.”
New rules relating to reporting and taxation traditionally have a bearish impact on cryptos.
However, there were no SEC v Coinbase (COIN) case-related updates to draw investor interest. After the SEC filed charges against Coinbase for operating as an unregistered securities exchange, broker, and clearing agency, investors await a Court response to a motion to dismiss.
Earlier this month, crypto lobbyists, professors, and Senator Cynthia Lummis filed Amicus Curiae briefs, asking the Court to dismiss the SEC v Coinbase case.
Considering the Judge Torres ruling on Programmatic Sales, the presiding Judge could dismiss the case. A dismissal should support an XRP and broader-based crypto market rally. However, the presiding Judge will likely tread carefully. The SEC would appeal adverse rulings.
After a mixed start to the weekend, XRP investors need to consider lingering crypto headwinds that continue to cap the upside.
Uncertainty toward the outcome of the SEC motion for interlocutory appeal will likely prevent an XRP breakout. Ripple must file its opposition to the SEC motion by September 1. The language within the opposition filing and the SEC response to the Ripple opposition motion will influence. However, XRP’s price trajectory will hinge on the final ruling.
Chatter relating to the appeal will need consideration.
We expect XRP sensitivity to SEC v Binance and SEC v Coinbase-related news.
The Daily Chart showed XRP/USD sitting below the $0.5750 – $0.5900 resistance band. On Saturday, XRP fell through the 200-day EMA while retreating from the 50-day EMA, delivering bearish near and longer-term price signals.
Looking at the 14-Daily RSI, 34.46 reflects a bearish sentiment. The RSI aligns with the EMAs, signaling a return to sub-$0.50 to bring the $0.4920 – $0.4780 support band into play. However, an XRP move through the 200-day EMA would give the bulls a run at $0.55. In the event of an extended rally, the bulls would target the $0.5750 – $0.5900 resistance band and the 50-day EMA.
Looking at the 4-Hourly Chart, XRP remains below the $0.5750 – $0.5900 resistance band. XRP also hovers below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, reaffirming the bearish near-term price signals.
The 50.02 14-4H RSI reflects a neutral sentiment, with buying pressure matching selling pressure. Significantly, the RSI signals a sideways move. Resistance at the 50-day EMA could limit any bullish move. Failure to move through the 50-day EMA would leave the $0.4920 – $0.4780 support band in view.
With over 20 years of experience in the finance industry, Bob has been managing regional teams across Europe and Asia and focusing on analytics across both corporate and financial institutions. Currently he is covering developments relating to the financial markets, including currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes, and global equities.