XRP News: Ripple’s Legal Tangle with SEC – What’s Next After Denied Appeal?

Key Insights:

• XRP’s value dipped by 0.75% on Sunday, concluding a weekly decrease of 1.22% to $0.5178.
• Attorney Jeremy Hogan elaborates on SEC v Ripple’s potential scenarios post-denied appeal ruling.
• The SEC v Coinbase case’s outcome and the US Election could sway Ripple’s legal trajectory.

The Sunday Overview

On Sunday, XRP fell by 0.75%. Following a 0.70% loss on Saturday, XRP ended the week down 1.22% to $0.5178.

SEC v Ripple Case Debate Continued after the Court Ruling

Discussions about the court ruling on the SEC motion for interlocutory appeal continued this weekend.

On Sunday, attorney Jeremy Hogan, partner at law firm Hogan & Hogan, shared his views on the court ruling, saying,

“I’m seeing some confusion as to what could happen next in the Ripple v SEC case now that the judge denied an interlocutory appeal.”

Hogan outlined every possible scenario, the chances of each eventuality, and the timeframes.

Among the scenarios is a settlement. Hogan stated,

“Settlement is a good option for the SEC. It gets to publish another “win” and collect a big check from the bad guys. The judge cleared this path for them by clarifying that her ruling applies to the facts specific to XRP.”

Hogan put the probability of a settlement by December 21, 2023, at 18.987%.

However, he put the chances of the SEC moving forward with a trial at 39.456%, saying,

“The Judge has left only the hardest part of the case for trial. The SEC could easily take an “L” at trial and have some of its dirty laundry aired at the same time.”

Hogan added,

“So, the SEC wants to push the entire case to trial and then appeal the parts of the judgment against Ripple it doesn’t like. Fair enough, but the most likely outcome in that situation is a final resolution in 2027. June 14, 2027, to be exact. Good luck with that.”

Other scenarios included,

• Settling the case against the individual Defendants, moving ahead against Ripple, and then filing an appeal.
• Remedies litigation.
• Settling all litigation against the individual Defendants and Ripple.

A case extending beyond 2024 may suit Ripple, Brad Garlinghouse, and Chris Larson.

Lengthy Courtroom Battle Possibly Advantageous for Ripple

A drawn-out courtroom battle could be a more favorable outcome for the Defendants. Two immediate reasons include the outcome of the SEC v Coinbase (COIN) case and the US Presidential Election.

Considering the SEC v Coinbase case, Coinbase, the SEC, and the crypto community await a court ruling on the Coinbase motion to dismiss (MTD).

Amicus Curiae attorney John E. Deaton sees the SEC having to settle against Ripple if Judge Katherine Failla grants the Coinbase MTD.

By way of background, the SEC charged Coinbase for allegedly operating as an unregistered securities exchange, broker, and clearing agency, among other charges.

Another possible scenario is a Republican Party victory in the US Presidential Election. Crypto advocates believe a Republican Party victory may end the anti-crypto stance on Capitol Hill and expedite a regulatory framework. Significantly, a Republican win would also end the SEC reign of regulation by enforcement.

When discussing the settlement option, Jeremy Hogan pointed out that, “The SEC has shown very little desire to compromise thus far” when considering the settlement option.”

However, a Coinbase or Republican Party victory could force the SEC to compromise. Such scenarios would be a advantageous for XRP and the crypto market.

XRP Price Action

Daily Chart

XRP sat below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, sending bearish price signals.

A break above the 200-day and 50-day EMAs would support a move to the $0.5470 resistance level and trend line. Selling pressure will likely build at $0.5470. The trend line is confluent with the resistance level.

SEC vs. Ripple case-related chatter and SEC vs. Coinbase case-related updates would move the dial. However, geopolitical tensions and news from the Middle East also need consideration. An escalation and threat of a widening Middle Eastern conflict may test buyer appetite for riskier assets.

Failure to move through the 200-day EMA would leave the $0.5042 support level in play.

The 49.37 14-Daily RSI reading indicates a fall through the $0.5042 support level before entering oversold territory.

4-Hourly Chart

In the 4-hourly Chart, XRP sits below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, reaffirming bearish price signals.

A break above the 200-day and 50-day EMAs would give the bulls a run at the $0.5470 resistance level and trend line.

However, failure to move through the EMAs would leave the $0.5042 support level in play.

The 14-4 Hourly RSI 39.21 reading suggests an XRP drop below $0.51 before entering oversold territory.