On Friday, XRP declined by 1.26%. Following a 1.56% loss on Thursday, XRP ended the Thursday session at $0.5342. Significantly, XRP extended its losing streak to four sessions.
This week, BTC-spot ETF market inflows declined sharply, spooking investors. Bitcoin (BTC) retreated from its recent high of $53,026, impacting the broader crypto market.
On Wednesday (February 21), the BTC-spot ETF market saw net outflows ($35.7 million) for the first time since January 25. Net inflows rebounded on Thursday and Friday. However, net inflows were significantly lower than the previous week.
BTC fell by 1.09% on Friday, with the total crypto market cap declining by 1.05%. XRP underperformed the broader market. Uncertainty about the SEC v Ripple case contributed to the losses.
There were no SEC v Ripple case-related updates to influence XRP trends. Investors await the conclusion of the case to see whether the SEC will appeal the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling.
In July, Judge Analisa Torres ruled that programmatic sales of XRP do not satisfy the third prong of the Howey Test. The SEC filed a motion to appeal the ruling in August. However, Judge Torres rejected the SEC motion for interlocutory appeal in October. In response, the SEC dropped the charges against Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse and co-founder Chris Larson.
The SEC may have dropped the charges to expedite the SEC v Ripple case. Following the ruling on the Motion for interlocutory appeal, the SEC must wait until the end of the trial to appeal against court rulings.
Despite optimism the courts would uphold the Programmatic Sales ruling, uncertainty lingers. Rulings from the SEC v Terraform Labs case added to the uncertainty. In December, Judge Jed Rakoff ruled that Luna and TerraUSD are securities. Judge Rakoff previously questioned the Programmatic Sales ruling, saying Judge Torres made a mistake.
The ruling likely incentivized the SEC to appeal the Programmatic Sales ruling. Significantly, the SEC referenced the Terraform Labs ruling in the SEC v Coinbase (COIN) case. The SEC asked the court to consider the SEC v Terraform Labs ruling. The SEC argued the ruling further supported its opposition to the Coinbase Motion to Dismiss.
Updates from the SEC v Ripple and Coinbase cases remain pivotal. However, investors must also track updates from the Office of Inspector General (OIG). The OIG is investigating reported crypto conflicts of interest within the SEC.
The outcome of the investigation and ruling on the Coinbase MTD could dictate whether the SEC will appeal against the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling.
XRP remained well below the 50-day and 200 EMAs, affirming bearish price signals.
An XRP break above the $0.5470 resistance level and 50-day EMA would bring the 200-day EMA into play. Selling pressure could intensify at the $0.5470 resistance level. The 50-day EMA is confluent with the $0.5470 resistance level. A break above the 200-day EMA would support a move toward the $0.5835 resistance level.
BTC-spot ETF market flows and SEC v crypto case-related news need consideration.
However, a break below the $0.5250 handle would support a fall to the $0.5042 support level.
The 14-day RSI reading, 46.77, suggests an XRP drop to the $0.5042 support level before entering oversold territory.
On the 4-hourly, XRP sat below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, confirming the bearish price trends.
A breakout from the 200-day EMA would bring the 50-day EMA and the $0.5470 resistance level into play. An XRP move through the $0.5470 resistance level would support a move toward the $0.5835 resistance level.
However, a drop below the $0.5250 handle would give the bears a run at the $0.5042 support level.
The 4-hourly RSI, with a reading of 39.39, suggests an XRP drop below the $0.5250 handle before entering oversold territory.
With over 20 years of experience in the finance industry, Bob has been managing regional teams across Europe and Asia and focusing on analytics across both corporate and financial institutions. Currently he is covering developments relating to the financial markets, including currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes, and global equities.