Favorable court rulings from SEC vs. crypto cases failed to drive buyer demand for XRP on Thursday, July 4. However, court rulings from the SEC v Coinbase (COIN) and Ripple cases could change the narrative.
When will Judge Analisa Torres deliver her ruling on the amount Ripple must pay for breaching US securities laws?
On Thursday, July 4, XRP tumbled by 7.32%. Following a 3.77% slide on Wednesday, July 3, XRP closed the session at $0.4329. Significantly, XRP ended the day at sub-$0.45 for the first time since May. The total crypto market cap slid by 5.84% to $2,043 billion, the largest single-day loss since April 13.
There were no SEC v Ripple case-related updates for investors to consider on Thursday. However, the recent court filings highlighted the challenges that Judge Analisa Torres faces in deciding the penalty Ripple must pay for breaching US securities laws.
Will Judge Torres consider the Ripple Notice of Supplemental Authority regarding the Binance ruling?
Ripple filed the notice to alert Judge Torres of the SEC vs. Binance court ruling. Judge Amy Berman Jackson dismissed the SEC case against Binance, claiming that secondary sales of binance coin (BNB) qualify as securities under the Howey test.
The Binance Ruling arrived before the SEC vs. Ripple verdict.
Ripple expects a ruling in the coming months. However, there is speculation that there could be a ruling in July.
Does the SEC vs. Binance ruling bolster the Ripple defense against selling unregistered XRP to institutional investors?
Ripple would need to appeal against the court ruling that it breached US securities laws for selling unregistered XRP to institutional investors. Nevertheless, the Binance ruling has significant influences.
The Binance ruling likely bolsters the 2023 Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling. In July 2023, Judge Torres ruled that programmatic sales of XRP do not satisfy the third prong of the Howey Test. Significantly, Judge Amy Berman Jackson cited the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling in the Binance ruling, surmising,
“The court is inclined to agree with the approach of the court in Ripple Labs, since the ‘it-is-what-it-is’ approach of the SEC appears to be inconsistent with the clear Supreme Court directives […].”
The Binance ruling was significant as it poured cold water on the chances of the SEC successfully appealing against the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling.
An end to SEC plans to appeal against the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling could be a boon for XRP. In response to the July 2023 court ruling, XRP rallied to a high of $0.9327. However, fears of the SEC appealing against the ruling led to an XRP retreat to sub-$0.50.
With court filings and rulings in focus, investors should remain vigilant. XRP and the broader crypto market remain sensitive to court rulings that impact the crypto regulatory landscape and SEC authority to regulate the crypto space.
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XRP remained well below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, affirming the bearish price signals.
An XRP return to $0.45 could give the bulls a run at the trend lines and the 50-day EMA. A break above the 50-day EMA would bring the 200-day EMA into play. However, selling pressure could intensify at the top trend line. The 50-day EMA is confluent with the top trend line.
SEC activity and SEC vs. crypto case-related news require investor consideration.
Conversely, an XRP drop below the $0.42 could bring sub-$0.40 levels into play.
With a 14-day RSI reading of 26.75, XRP sits in oversold territory. Buyer demand could intensify at the July 5 low of $0.4240.
With over 20 years of experience in the finance industry, Bob has been managing regional teams across Europe and Asia and focusing on analytics across both corporate and financial institutions. Currently he is covering developments relating to the financial markets, including currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes, and global equities.