On Monday, August 5, XRP tumbled 6.44%. Following a 5.78% slide on Sunday, August 4, XRP ended the session at $0.4897. Significantly, XRP extended its losing streak to six sessions as the broader crypto market slid by 7.15% to a total market cap of $1.868 trillion.
XRP and the broader crypto market continued to feel the effects of the Bank of Japan’s rate hike and reduction in Japanese Government Bond (JGB) purchases.
A tighter monetary policy and a more hawkish BoJ rate path strengthened the Yen, forcing investors to unwind Yen carry trades. Investors likely borrowed Yen to purchase XRP and other cryptos.
The BoJ’s policy move coincided with fears of a US recession and expectations of multiple 2024 Fed rate cuts, weakening the US dollar. Investors borrowing Yen to purchase US dollars and acquire XRP may have suffered significant losses in unwinding their carry trades.
The market turmoil overshadowed investor hopes of an SEC vs. Ripple settlement.
Steve Sosnick, Chief Strategist at Interactive Brokers, remarked on the carry trade unwind, stating,
“And now the risk-off, unwinding carry trade has come for Bitcoin and crypto.”
As the crypto market steadies, following upbeat US ISM Services PMI numbers, investors will likely redirect their attention to the SEC vs. Ripple case.
Recent SEC meeting scheduling has fueled XRP price volatility and hopes of a settlement. The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting on Thursday, August 8, which could be crucial for XRP and the crypto market.
A settlement would end SEC plans to appeal the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling and set the Programmatic Sales ruling as a legal precedent. In July 2023, Judge Torres ruled that programmatic sales of XRP do not satisfy the third prong of the Howey Test.
XRP rallied to a high of $0.9327 in July 2023 following the Programmatic Sales ruling, before sliding to a low of $0.4367 in August 2023. Fears that the SEC could overturn the Programmatic Sales ruling on appeal impacted XRP demand.
The recent SEC vs. Binance court ruling highlighted the significance of the Programmatic Sales ruling.
In June, Judge Amy Berman Jackson dismissed the SEC charges against Binance, claiming that secondary Binance Coin (BNB) sales qualify as securities under the Howey test.
Significantly, Judge Jackson cited the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling, surmising,
“The court is inclined to agree with the approach of the court in Ripple Labs, since the ‘it-is-what-it-is’ approach of the SEC appears to be inconsistent with the clear Supreme Court directives […].”
A settlement in the Ripple case could end the SEC’s claims that crypto sales on exchanges violate US securities laws.
Investors should remain alert. Stay updated with our latest news and analysis to manage exposures to XRP and the broader crypto market.
XRP remained below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, affirming the bearish price signals.
A return to the Monday high of $0.5258 would support a move toward the 200-day and 50-day EMAs. Furthermore, a break above the 200-day and 50-day EMAs could signal a move toward the $0.5739 resistance level.
SEC vs. crypto case-related chatter would require consideration.
Conversely, a break below $0.50 would bring the trend lines into play. A fall through the trend lines could give the bears a run at the $0.45 handle.
With a 14-day RSI reading of 40.41, XRP could fall through the trend lines before entering oversold territory.
With over 20 years of experience in the finance industry, Bob has been managing regional teams across Europe and Asia and focusing on analytics across both corporate and financial institutions. Currently he is covering developments relating to the financial markets, including currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes, and global equities.