On Saturday, February 22, XRP gained 0.19%, partially reversing the Bybit-triggered 4.40% slide on Friday to close at $2.5767. XRP underperformed the broader market, which rose 1.01%, taking the total crypto market cap to $3.14 trillion.
The SEC’s continued silence on its Ripple case appeal strategy left XRP lagging behind the broader market.
Since Gary Gensler’s departure, the SEC has held several closed meetings and established the Crypto Task Force. Recent enforcement actions suggest a shifting regulatory stance. The SEC:
Despite these legal maneuvers, the SEC has remained silent on its January 15 appeal-related opening brief challenging the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling. The lack of clarity has drawn increasing scrutiny from the crypto community.
Fox Business journalist Eleanor Terrett weighed in on the situation, highlighting the complexity of the Ripple case:
“On Ripple, as Cherry Empress notes, it’s more procedurally complex than Coinbase because they already have an order from Judge Torres at the district level to pay the $125M penalty. Torres, according to the final judgment, will retain jurisdiction over the case for a year (until August 7, 2025) to make sure the terms of the order are met.”
Regarding the SEC’s options, Terrett added:
“While the SEC could choose to drop the appeal at the Second Circuit, they would also need to figure out how to approach the district court and possibly come to an agreement on the penalty ruling (reduce or ask to drop) and presumably get Torres’s blessing as the presider. There’s a degree of uncertainty in all of this because, as one legal source tells me: “We are in uncharted territory right now.”
XRP’s trajectory hinges on two key factors: the SEC’s appeal strategy and potential XRP-spot ETF approvals.
The SEC’s ETF decisions could also depend on its appeal strategy. With final deadlines in October, the agency has time to delay its ETF reviews. A withdrawal of the appeal would pave the way for XRP-spot ETFs, improving market confidence. However, approving ETFs while the appeal remains unresolved might create uncertainty among institutional investors.
After the Bybit-fueled sell-off, XRP sits below the 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), while holding above the 200-day EMA. The EMAs send bearish price signals.
If XRP breaks above the 50-day EMA, the bulls may target $3 next. A return to $3 could signal a move toward the January 16 high of $3.3999. Favorable Ripple case-related news may bring the all-time high of $3.5505 into sight.
Conversely, a drop below $2.5 may enable the bears to target the $1.9299 support level and the February 3 low of $1.7024 next.
With a 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 45.83, XRP could fall to the $1.9299 support level before entering oversold territory (RSI below 30).
XRP’s price trajectory remains closely tied to regulatory developments, particularly the SEC’s appeal decision. However, broader macroeconomic factors, including US tariffs and Fed policy shifts, could impact investor sentiment.
Trump’s election win and hopes for an end to the Ripple case drove XRP to a January high of $3.3999. However, US tariff tensions and a more hawkish Fed stance sent XRP to a February 3 low of $1.7938 before rebounding above $2.5.
Investors should closely monitor SEC actions, as any decision on the Ripple appeal or XRP-spot ETFs could trigger XRP’s next major price move.
View our latest technical and legal analysis here.
With over 28 years of experience in the financial industry, Bob has worked with various global rating agencies and multinational banks. Currently he is covering currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes and global equities, focusing mostly on European and Asian markets.