On Tuesday, XRP rallied 6.44%. Following a 1.53% gain on Monday, XRP ended the session at $0.5865. Significantly, XRP climbed to a session high of $0.5970 before returning below the $0.59 handle.
On Tuesday, an IMF report on digital currencies drew investor interest. The IMF paper discussed digital money and payment systems in Pacific Island Countries (PICs). Notably, the paper stated,
“The paper underscores the potential of digital money in advancing public policy goals, like financial inclusion and improved cross-border connectivity – given the specific characteristics of the region – while cautioning against the risks of rapid and inadequately regulated adoption.”
The IMF added,
“Accordingly, it (The IMF) advocates a gradual, well-informed approach, tailored to PICs’ unique monetary and financial circumstances, including the presence of national currencies and the maturity of payment systems.”
Ripple and XRP received mentions. The IMF highlighted sovereign stablecoins and the use of the R3 XRP blockchain.
The paper also discussed a Ripple partnership with Palau. Palau and Ripple are exploring plans to launch a sovereign stablecoin. The references highlighted the global reach that Ripple enjoys and its involvement in developing central bank digital currencies/sovereign stablecoins.
On Tuesday, bitcoin (BTC) gained 4.74%. BTC-spot ETF market flow data propelled BTC to a session high of $57,612, bringing $60,000 into view.
The BTC-spot ETF market saw total net inflows of $519.8 million on Monday (February 26). Net inflows rebounded after a disappointing week ending February 23, which saw total net inflows of $583.5 million for the entire week.
There were no SEC v Ripple case-related updates to influence investor sentiment.
After concluding remedies-related discovery on February 20, the SEC and Ripple are preparing remedy-related briefs. The respective briefs will argue for and against a punitive penalty for Ripple breaching Section 5 of the US Securities Act.
In July, Judge Analisa Torres ruled that Ripple failed to register XRP as a security in sales to institutional investors. According to the court briefing schedule, the SEC must file its remedy-related brief by March 13. Hopes of a settlement continue to fade, increasing the likelihood of the SEC appealing against the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling.
The SEC v Ripple trial resumes after the remedy-related brief filings. However, external events may influence SEC plans to appeal.
On February 15, US non-profit government watchdog Empower Oversight announced an investigation into conflicts of interest within the SEC nearing its conclusion. The result of the investigation may have a significant bearing on the SEC v Ripple case.
The Office of Inspector General (OIG) investigations into conflicts of interest and the SEC v Ripple case involve a former SEC director. The OIG is investigating activities involving former SEC Director William Hinman.
Empower Oversight alleges, in a 2021 lawsuit, Hinman received millions of dollars from his former employer, Simpson Thacher. Simpson Thacher forms part of a group promoting Enterprise Ethereum.
In 2018, Hinman famously said that Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are not securities.
In the lead-up to the July 2023 court rulings, the courts ordered the SEC to disclose the Hinman speech-related documents to Ripple. The documents revealed Hinman continued to meet with Simpson Thacher despite warnings from the SEC Ethics Division. Hinman returned to Simpson Thacher after leaving the SEC.
Another consideration is the ongoing SEC v Coinbase (COIN) case.
Coinbase and the SEC await a court ruling on the Coinbase Motion to Dismiss (MTD). Coinbase filed the MTD in August, arguing the SEC lacks the statutory authority to regulate US crypto exchanges.
Judge Katherine Failla heard oral arguments from the SEC and Coinbase in January. Legal experts speculated Coinbase offered a more convincing argument vis-à-vis the definition of investment contracts.
If Judge Katherine Failla grants the Coinbase MTD, the SEC may have to cease regulating through enforcement. Amicus Curiae attorney and CryptoLaw US founder John E. Deaton believed the SEC would settle the case against Ripple if the Court grants the Coinbase MTD.
The outcome of the OIG investigation and the Coinbase MTD ruling could come at any time.
XRP sat above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, sending bullish price signals.
An XRP break above the $0.5835 resistance level and the Tuesday high of $0.5970 would support a move toward the $0.6354 resistance level.
The OIG investigation and SEC v Ripple and Coinbase case-related updates need consideration.
However, a fall through the $0.5750 handle would give the bears a run at the 50-day EMA.
The 14-day RSI reading, 63.60, suggests an XRP return to the $0.60 handle before entering overbought territory.
On the 4-hourly, XRP remained above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, affirming the bullish price signals.
An XRP breakout from the $0.5835 resistance level would bring the $0.6354 resistance level into play.
However, a break below the $0.5750 handle would support a fall toward the 50-day EMA.
The 4-hourly RSI, with a reading of 68.01, suggests an XRP return to the $0.60 handle before entering overbought territory.
With over 20 years of experience in the finance industry, Bob has been managing regional teams across Europe and Asia and focusing on analytics across both corporate and financial institutions. Currently he is covering developments relating to the financial markets, including currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes, and global equities.