XRP News Today: Institutional Demand Looms as ETF Odds Hit 86%; BTC Hits $86k

Odds of XRP Spot ETF Approval Rise Sharply

The SEC’s intent to withdraw its appeal against the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling has boosted expectations of an XRP-spot ETF market. Eliminating legal uncertainty over XRP’s classification in secondary market sales may enable the SEC to approve pending XRP-spot ETF applications.

ETF issuers awaiting approval include 21Shares, Bitwise Invest, Canary Funds, Franklin Templeton, Grayscale, and WisdomTree. Although the final decision deadline is October 2025, the SEC can grant approvals earlier.

According to Polymarket, a crypto-betting platform, the odds of an XRP-spot ETF approval by December 2025 have risen to 86%, up from 77% following Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse’s announcement. Prospects for approval in H1 2025 have also improved, rising from 33% to 46%.

The launch of an XRP-spot ETF market could be a game-changer for XRP. Institutional demand could drive XRP to record highs. Notably, the launch of BTC-spot ETFs triggered a 51% rally ahead of Trump’s election victory and contributed to BTC’s climb to a record high of $109,312.

If XRP follows a similar path, the token could revisit its 2018 all-time high of $3.5505. While ETF speculation will likely influence sentiment, Ripple’s cross-appeal plans remain a central focus.

XRP Price Outlook: Cross-Appeal, ETF Prospects Shape Sentiment

On Sunday, March 23, XRP rallied 2.95%, reversing Saturday’s 0.37% loss, closing at $2.4410. XRP outperformed the broader market, which rose 2.1%, taking the total crypto market cap to $2.76 trillion.

Key factors influencing XRP’s price outlook:

• Ripple Cross-Appeal Strategy: a settlement could push XRP above $3.5505, while continued uncertainty may drag it below $2.
• XRP-Spot ETF Prospects: An ETF approval could send XRP toward $3.5505, but regulatory delays could stall momentum.
• Macro Risks: Rising trade tensions and US recession fears could drag XRP to its February low of $1.7938. Conversely, easing tensions and a resilient US economy could drive XRP toward $3.

Read expert analysis on what could drive XRP to new highs here.

BTC in Focus: The Bitcoin Act and ETF Flows

XRP’s move toward $2.5 coincided with bitcoin (BTC) breaking above the crucial $85k level. Rising institutional demand through BTC-spot ETFs has fueled a rebound from the March 11 low of $76,642.

On Friday, March 21, the US BTC-spot ETF market extended its inflow streak to six sessions, its longest since January. Waning institutional demand in February and early March contributed to the BTC drop from its record high to the March 11 low. Sentiment toward President Trump’s Executive Order establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) pressured BTC demand.

However, sentiment could shift significantly in BTC’s favor if Congress passes the Bitcoin Act. Senator Cynthia Lummis reintroduced the Bitcoin Act on March 11. If passed, the bill would authorize the US government to acquire one million BTC over five years, with a 20-year mandatory holding period.

Bitcoin Price Scenarios: Key Levels to Watch

On March 23, BTC rose 2.74%, reversing Saturday’s 0.27% dip, closing at $86,117.

Potential BTC price scenarios:

• Bearish Scenario: Renewed trade tensions, recession concerns, political resistance to the Bitcoin Act, or ETF outflows could drag BTC toward $70,000.
• Bullish Scenario: Strong US economic data, easing geopolitical risks, legislative progress, and continued inflows may drive BTC toward $109,312.

Market Outlook: Key Drivers

Several macroeconomic and regulatory factors will influence the crypto landscape in the near term:

• Ripple Cross Appeal or Settlement: A resolution could trigger a broader market rally.
• US Tariff Policy: Higher tariffs may prompt a hawkish Fed stance, increasing downside risks.
• Strategic BTC Reserve: The Strategic BTC Reserve could accelerate institutional adoption.
• BTC-Spot ETF Flows: Continued inflows are a key indicator of institutional sentiment.

While the SEC’s recent move eases immediate pressure, lasting investor confidence will hinge on broader regulatory clarity.

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