On Thursday, June 20, XRP declined by 0.95%. Reversing a 0.49% gain from Wednesday, June 19, XRP closed the session at $0.4892.
There was no SEC vs. Ripple case-related news to influence buyer demand for XRP on Thursday.
Investors awaited the court ruling on how much Ripple must pay for breaching US securities laws. The ruling could be significant, with the SEC pushing for a $2 billion penalty and an injunction prohibiting XRP sales to institutional investors.
An injunction could end plans to expand the Ripple business in the US.
The court ruling will influence buyer demand for XRP. However, an SEC appeal against the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling may impact more.
In July 2023, Judge Analisa Torres ruled that programmatic sales of XRP do not satisfy the third prong of the Howey Test.
Notably, the SEC attempted to appeal the programmatic sales of XRP ruling immediately after the court decision. However, Judge Analisa Torres rejected the Motion for Interlocutory Appeal, meaning that the SEC must wait until the end of the case to file an appeal.
On Thursday, pro-crypto lawyer Jeremy Hogan discussed the chances of an SEC win on appeal, saying,
“Sound logic. Plus remember that even if the SEC ‘wins’ the appeal, the case just comes back down to the trial court for further factual determinations. There is no final glorious victory for the SEC up in the 2nd Circuit, just the potential for disaster.”
Hogan reacted to a May 23 interview with former SEC Division Chief Kristina Littman, who said the SEC may not appeal the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling.
Littman said,
“I’ll be curious to see whether the parties appeal there. I think there’s some speculation that, because Judge Rakoff and the Terra opinion explicitly disagreed with Judge Torres’s logic from the Ripple opinion, and then Coinbase doesn’t really address the Ripple opinion as much, but pretty explicitly adopts the Terra logic.
Littman added,
“I think there’s some speculation the SEC might just let the Ripple opinion stay there as a district court opinion and not risk elevating to a circuit level where they could potentially illicit bad law when they have otherwise favorable rulings in the aftermath of the Ripple litigation.”
In January, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse delivered an optimistic view on an SEC appeal, stating,
“The current Supreme Court, we’d love to see the Vegas odds on how that would go. They have not been friendly to regulators.”
While XRP moves sideways, news of the SEC ending its plans to appeal could fuel an XRP return to $1.00. Ripple expects the court to deliver its remedies-related ruling in the coming months. A court ruling from the SEC v Coinbase (COIN) case could influence the SEC.
Coinbase filed a Motion for Interlocutory Appeal in April to appeal against the court ruling on the Coinbase Motion to Dismiss (MTD).
In March, Judge Katherine Failla denied, in large part, the Coinbase MTD, surmising,
“The court concludes that because the well-placed allegations of the Complaint plausibly support the SEC’s claim that Coinbase operated as an unregistered intermediary of securities, Defendants’ motion must be denied in large part.”
It is worth noting that if the SEC ends its plans to appeal, it could settle the Ripple case with a lower penalty rather than risk another adverse outcome. SEC plans to appeal against the programmatic sales of XRP ruling remains an XRP headwind.
XRP sat comfortably below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, affirming the bearish price signals.
An XRP move above the trend lines could give the bulls a run toward the 50-day EMA. A break above the 50-day EMA could signal a move toward the 200-day EMA.
SEC vs. crypto case-related news needs investor attention.
Conversely, an XRP drop below the $0.48 handle could bring the $0.45 handle into play.
With a 14-day RSI reading of 43.34, XRP could fall to the $0.45 level before entering oversold territory.
With over 20 years of experience in the finance industry, Bob has been managing regional teams across Europe and Asia and focusing on analytics across both corporate and financial institutions. Currently he is covering developments relating to the financial markets, including currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes, and global equities.