On Monday, August 12, XRP advanced by 2.91%, closing at $0.5689 after a 5.34% slide on Sunday. The broader crypto market gained 2.37%, taking the total market cap to $2.062 trillion.
On Friday, August 9, Ripple announced the start of testing its Ripple USD (RLUSD) stablecoin. The timing was significant, coming just two days after the final judgment in the SEC v Ripple case.
Ripple and the SEC could cross paths again, with Ripple seeking regulatory approval for its RLUSD stablecoin despite other stablecoins existing without SEC approval.
To avoid confusion, Ripple stated,
“RLUSD has not yet received regulatory approval and therefore is not available for purchase or trading.”
In the final judgment, Judge Analisa Torres prohibited Ripple from further US securities law violations. However, Judge Torres rejected the SEC’s request to prohibit XRP sales to institutional investors outright.
Pro-crypto lawyer Fred Rispoli shared his views on the injunction order, stating,
“This is probably the most important thing, is that the order the SEC had wanted the judge to sign, the one they drafted and gave the judge, was rejected by the court. And the court went with a very generic order that essentially says, you are enjoined from violating section 5 of the securities laws going forward.”
Rispoli added,
“It doesn’t explicitly destroy their business model, which is what the SEC was going for in this.”
Ripple’s decision to obtain regulatory approval for RLUSD likely stems from the final judgment, which orders it to remain within legal boundaries or face further lawsuits.
The SEC could challenge RLUSD, forcing Ripple into the courts again. However, the SEC must prove how RLUSD holders could expect profits (the third prong of the Howey Test) when RLUSD is a US dollar-pegged stablecoin.
In April 2024, the SEC filed its remedies-related reply brief, targeting Ripple’s stablecoin plans, labeling it as an issuance of a new unregistered crypto asset.
A Ripple win against the SEC could open the door to an XRP-spot ETF market. Conversely, the SEC may appeal against the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling.
In August 2023, the SEC filed a Motion for Interlocutory Appeal, asking the court’s permission to appeal the Programmatic Sales ruling. However, Judge Torres rejected the Motion, requiring the SEC to wait until the final judgment to file appeals.
Pro-crypto lawyer Rispoli shared his views on the chances of an SEC appeal, saying,
“It is as close to a 50-50 as you can get. […]. The SEC would want to appeal the secondary market issue, […] That’s the one thing that is driving whether they should appeal or not, is, we got to get that off the books for the secondary market because that’s critical to how we do this, how we run our enforcement actions.”
Despite the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling and the final judgment, Ripple faces more uncertainty in the US as it pursues approval for RLUSD.
Pro-Crypto Lawyer Bill Morgan shared an article on uncertainty about the SEC approving RLUSD, saying,
“The article is a reminder of the what the SEC has already said about the issuance of RLUSD. The regulatory uncertainty is of course a problem in – guess which country?”
Ripple and the SEC must file appeals within 60 days of the final judgment. Uncertainty about SEC plans to appeal could impact XRP demand and support a drop toward its July 5, 2024, low of $0.3814. Conversely, if the SEC decides against an appeal and approves RLUSD, XRP could rally to the July 13, 2023, high of $0.9327.
Investors should remain alert, as appeals could adversely impact XRP price trends. Stay updated with our latest news and analysis to manage your exposure to XRP and the broader crypto market.
XRP remained above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, affirming the bullish price signals.
A break above the $0.5739 resistance level could give the bulls a run at $0.60. A breakout from $0.60 could bring the August 7 high of $0.6437 into play.
SEC vs. crypto case-related news and SEC activity require consideration.
Conversely, a drop below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs could give the bears a run at $0.50.
With a 14-day RSI reading of 51.10, XRP could fall to the $0.50 handle before entering oversold territory.
With over 20 years of experience in the finance industry, Bob has been managing regional teams across Europe and Asia and focusing on analytics across both corporate and financial institutions. Currently he is covering developments relating to the financial markets, including currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes, and global equities.