On Saturday, December 21, XRP declined by 1.85%, reversing a 1.83% gain from Friday, closing at $2.2365. Underperforming the broader market’s 1.64% decline, XRP remains under pressure amid ongoing regulatory uncertainties.
This article explores the impact of SEC developments, regulatory shifts, and XRP-spot ETFs on price trends.
XRP and the broader crypto market succumbed to Wednesday’s FOMC Economic Projections, which signaled fewer rate cuts in 2025. However, sentiment toward the SEC’s plans to appeal rulings in the Ripple case remains pivotal to near-term price trends.
The SEC must file its opening brief by January 15, days before Chair Gary Gensler steps down on January 20. Recent SEC actions, including strengthening its legal team, suggest a determined approach toward an appeal.
Since announcing his resignation, Chair Gensler reinforced the SEC’s enforcement division. The move underscored his intent to leave the incoming SEC Chair to address the objectives of seasoned crypto-enforcement officers.
However, before Atkins’ arrival, the Senior Officers within the Enforcement Division may present a compelling case to appeal. The Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling will likely be the focal point. In July 2023, Judge Analisa Torres ruled that programmatic sales of XRP did not satisfy the third prong of the Howey Test.
The ruling enabled US crypto exchanges to re-list XRP. Following Trump’s Chair nomination, hopes of an end to the Ripple case drove XRP to a December 3 high of $2.9070. While Paul Atkins may support Trump’s pro-crypto agenda, internal SEC rules mandate that an agency vote, not the Chair alone, determines the appeal’s continuation or withdrawal.
This exposes XRP to uncertainty about the appeal and the potential reversal of the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling.
While the risk of an SEC appeal lingers, an agency overhaul is underway. The departures of Democrat Commissioners Caroline Crenshaw and Jaime Lizarraga could pave the way for Republican appointments.
Republican Commissioners could support Paul Atkins’ expected reverse course on the SEC’s crypto-enforcement efforts. However, investors may need greater clarity on the current SEC regime’s intentions and Paul Atkins’ plans for the Ripple case.
XRP price trends remain hinged on the SEC’s next steps. Withdrawing the appeal may result in the approval of pending XRP-spot ETF applications, potentially driving XRP above the December 3 high of $2.9070. Conversely, XRP could drop below $2, if the agency files the opening brief and rejects the XRP applications.
Despite this week’s reversal, XRP remains comfortably above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, sending bullish price signals.
A return to $2.50 could support a move toward the December 3 high of $2.9070. Furthermore, a breakout from $2.9070 may enable the bulls to target $3, potentially bringing January 2018’s all-time high of $3.5505 into sight.
SEC-related activity and Ripple case-related news require consideration.
Conversely, a break below $2 could signal a fall toward the $1.9299 support level. A drop through the $1.9299 support level may enable the bears to target the $1.3461 support level. Speculation over the SEC’s appeal against Ripple rulings could trigger a sell-off.
With a 14-day RSI reading of 54.70, XRP could return to $2.9070 before entering overbought territory (RSI above 70).
XRP’s price outlook depends on the SEC’s appeal decision and broader regulatory developments. A favorable outcome for Ripple could spark a rally, while adverse rulings may lead to further declines. For a deeper dive into XRP’s potential price movements, click here for our latest analysis.
With over 20 years of experience in the finance industry, Bob has been managing regional teams across Europe and Asia and focusing on analytics across both corporate and financial institutions. Currently he is covering developments relating to the financial markets, including currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes, and global equities.