On Saturday (May 18), XRP declined by 0.46%. Partially reversing a 1.61% gain from Friday, XRP ended the session at $0.5215.
The XRP Markets Report for Q1 2024 remained the focal point for investors on Saturday.
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse shared his views about the quarterly report on X (formerly Twitter), posting,
“New quarter, more XRPL traction – I’m particularly excited that the native AMM, arguably one of the largest updates to the XRP Ledger, went live in Q1.”
However, XRP ended the Saturday session in the red despite the updates to the XRP Ledger and a 40% surge in XRP spot volumes quarter-on-quarter.
The quarterly report provided updates on the ongoing SEC vs. Ripple case, with Ripple anticipating a court ruling in the coming months.
A court ruling on the penalty Ripple must pay for breaching US securities laws will likely influence buyer demand for XRP. The SEC has pursued an almost $2 billion financial penalty in the remedies-related opening brief. Furthermore, the SEC argued for a court injunction prohibiting XRP sales to US institutional investors.
If the court rules that Ripple continued breaching US securities laws after the December 2020 complaint, the court could side with the SEC. An injunction could end plans to expand in the US. Moreover, the SEC also warned that Ripple would breach US securities laws if it proceeds with the planned launch of a stablecoin.
A punitive penalty, an injunction, and a possible breach of US securities laws with a stablecoin launch would be an ominous combination for XRP. There is also the ongoing threat of the SEC appealing against the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling.
However, it is not all doom and gloom. Brad Garlinghouse has previously stated that most of its business is outside the US. Expansion into new markets could cushion the blow of an injunction in the US.
This week, Ripple Managing Director for the Middle East and Africa Reece Merrick spoke about their expansion plans, saying,
“Look, we’ve been in the Middle East for four years now under the DIFC framework. What’s really attractive about the UAE and the Middle East is how friendly they are from a regulatory perspective. They’re building clear frameworks, which allow businesses and encourage businesses to come here and build out their operations, so we will be looking to expand quite heavily here, I would say.”
In 2023, Ripple made progress in the Middle East. The Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA) announced firms in the Dubai International Financial Center (DIFC) could use XRP in virtual asset services. At the time, Brad Garlinghouse said that Ripple could continue targeting regions with regulatory transparency for cryptos.
In 2024, the US digital asset space remains in crypto regulatory limbo, with the SEC regulating through enforcement. The lack of a US regulatory framework has forced crypto firms to explore overseas.
It may hinge on the US Presidential Election to decide the fate of the US crypto space. A Republican Party victory could be a boon for XRP and the broader crypto market. An end to the Gary Gensler era of regulation through enforcement may also end SEC plans to appeal against the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling. SEC plans to appeal remains an XRP headwind.
XRP sat below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, confirming the bearish price trends.
An XRP breakout from the 50-day EMA could give the bulls a run at the 200-day EMA. A break above the 200-day EMA could signal an XRP move toward the $0.5739 resistance level.
SEC vs. Ripple case-related news needs consideration.
Conversely, an XRP break below the trend lines could give the bears a run at the $0.48 handle.
The 14-day RSI reading, 49.33, indicates an XRP drop to the $0.48 handle level before entering oversold territory.
With over 20 years of experience in the finance industry, Bob has been managing regional teams across Europe and Asia and focusing on analytics across both corporate and financial institutions. Currently he is covering developments relating to the financial markets, including currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes, and global equities.