Investor jitters over the SEC’s legal battle with Ripple sent XRP tumbling this weekend. As the crypto giant’s court case nears its climax, the future of XRP hangs in the balance.
On Sunday, June 23, XRP slid by 1.42%. Following a 0.55% loss on Saturday, June 22, XRP ended the week down 1.92% at $0.4797.
XRP joined the broader crypto market in negative territory on Sunday, with the total crypto market cap falling by 1.73% to $2.251 trillion.
There were no SEC v Ripple case-related updates to influence buyer demand for XRP. Nevertheless, investors awaited pending court rulings from pivotal crypto cases that could affect the SEC hold over the US digital asset space.
The court ruling on the penalty for Ripple breaching US securities laws could come at any time.
Ripple faces the possibility of a financial penalty ranging between $10 million and $2 billion. In March, the SEC asked the courts to impose an injunction prohibiting XRP sales to institutional investors.
An injunction may adversely affect plans to expand in the US. While the court verdict will attract investor attention, SEC plans to appeal against the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling remains an XRP headwind.
The SEC vs. Ripple case is not the only issue XRP investors must grapple with.
Last week, the courts in California gave Ripple a much-needed win, dismissing allegations that Ripple breached US securities laws. Nevertheless, Ripple will go to trial. In the court order, Judge Phyllis J. Hamilton surmised that,
“Given the relative novelty of cryptocurrency, and given the lack of any controlling law regarding the motivation of a reasonable cryptocurrency investor, the court declines to find as a matter of law that a reasonable investor would have derived any expectation of profit from general cryptocurrency market trends, as opposed to Ripple’s efforts to facilitate XRP’s use in cross-border payments, among other things.”
Pivotally, Judge Hamilton concluded that,
“Accordingly, the [court] cannot find as a matter of law that Ripple’s conduct would not have led a reasonable investor to have an expectation of profit due to the efforts of others.”
The outcome of the Californian trial may have more significance than the SEC vs. Ripple case. If the court finds XRP sales failed the Howey test, the SEC could justify appealing against the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling.
XRP could face intensified selling pressure if the SEC files an appeal. In July 2023, XRP surged to a high of $0.9327 before hitting the reverse on speculation about an SEC appeal against the ruling.
XRP could continue to face stern selling pressure at $0.50 until there is more clarity on SEC plans vis-à-vis an appeal and the court ruling in California.
As the legal battles intensify, XRP investors should brace for continued volatility. Stay tuned for further updates as the court rulings unfold.
XRP sat comfortably below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, confirming the bearish price trends.
An XRP break above the trend lines would support a move to the 50-day EMA. A breakout from the 50-day EMA could give the bulls a run at the 200-day EMA.
SEC activity and SEC vs. crypto case-related chatter require investor consideration.
Conversely, a break below the $0.4750 handle could give the bears a run at the $0.45 handle.
With a 14-day RSI reading of 39.22, XRP could fall to the $0.45 level before entering oversold territory.
With over 20 years of experience in the finance industry, Bob has been managing regional teams across Europe and Asia and focusing on analytics across both corporate and financial institutions. Currently he is covering developments relating to the financial markets, including currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes, and global equities.