On Friday, XRP declined by 1.11%. Partially reversing a 3.27% rally from Thursday, XRP ended the session at $0.5869.
On Thursday, Ripple announced plans to enter the Stablecoin space with an XRPL and Ethereum blockchain-based dollar-pegged Stablecoin.
However, XRP gains were short-lived as the SEC and Ripple progressed through the final stage of the SEC vs. Ripple case.
On March 26, the SEC filed a redacted version of the remedy-related opening brief. The SEC argued that Ripple continued to breach the 1933 Securities Act after the December 2020 complaint.
Ripple must file its remedy-related opposition brief by April 22 and a redacted version by April 24. The April 22 filing could dictate the size of the penalty for selling unregistered XRP to institutional investors. Significantly, Ripple must demonstrate it did not sell unregistered XRP to US institutional investors after the complaint.
Ripple may cite Morrison vs. NAB, where the Supreme Court ruled that the SEC only has jurisdiction over US-based sales. Failure to demonstrate that all XRP sales were to non-US institutional investors could expose Ripple to a $2 billion penalty. Significantly, an adverse ruling could impact Ripple’s US business goals.
Irrespective of the outcome, SEC plans to appeal the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling remained an XRP headwind. In July 2023, Judge Analisa Torres ruled that programmatic sales of XRP do not satisfy the third prong of the Howey Test.
In October, Judge Torres Court rejected an SEC Motion for Interlocutory Appeal. The ruling means the SEC must wait until the end of the SEC vs. Ripple case to file appeals against court rulings.
Since the October ruling, two court rulings in ongoing SEC vs. crypto cases favored the SEC.
In December, Judge Rakoff ruled that Terraform Labs and founder Do Kwon breached US Securities Laws for failing to register TerraUSD and Luna as securities.
More recently, Judge Katherine Failla partially granted the Coinbase (COIN) Motion to Dismiss (MTD). However, Judge Failla denied the Motion to Dismiss charges relating to operating an unregistered securities exchange.
The court rulings and the anticipated appeal against the Programmatic Sales ruling could shroud the crypto market with more uncertainty.
XRP remained below the 50-day EMA while holding above the 200-day EMA. The EMAs affirmed the bearish near-term but bullish longer-term price signals.
An XRP breakout from the 50-day EMA could give the bulls a run at the $0.6609 resistance level.
SEC vs. crypto-related chatter needs investor consideration.
Conversely, a drop below the 200-day EMA and the $0.5740 support level could signal an XRP drop to the trend line.
The 14-day RSI reading, 45.44, indicates an XRP drop to the trend line before entering oversold territory.
On the 4-hourly, XRP remained below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs. The EMAs confirmed the bearish near-term price signals.
An XRP break above the 50-day EMA would support a move to the 200-day EMA. A breakout from the 200-day EMA would bring the $0.6609 resistance level into view.
However, an XRP drop below the $0.60 handle would bring the $0.5740 support level into play.
The 4-hourly RSI, with a reading of 50.12, suggests an XRP move to the $0.6609 resistance level before entering overbought territory.
With over 28 years of experience in the financial industry, Bob has worked with various global rating agencies and multinational banks. Currently he is covering currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes and global equities, focusing mostly on European and Asian markets.