XRP News Today: SEC v Ripple Appeal Impact on XRP Forecast and ETFs

The Thursday Overview

On Thursday, XRP gained 2.19%. Reversing a 1.91% decline from Wednesday, XRP ended the session at $0.5873.

SEC v Ripple: Court Rulings, Investigations, and XRP-Spot ETFs

There were no updates from the ongoing SEC v Ripple case to consider on Thursday. Investors await a court ruling on the SEC request to amend the court briefing schedule for remedy-related brief filings. A one-week delay is immaterial when considering the case has been ongoing since December 2020.

However, the reason behind the extension could be significant. The SEC and Ripple are preparing remedy-related briefs. According to the court briefing schedule, the SEC must file its remedy-related brief by March 13. A court approval to extend would allow the SEC to file the brief by March 22.

The SEC is reeling from the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling in July 2023. Judge Analisa Torres ruled programmatic sales of XRP do not satisfy the third prong of the Howey Test. The SEC will likely appeal the Programmatic Sales ruling at the end of the SEC v Ripple case.

The outcome of an appeal will have more impact on XRP and the US crypto market. Nonetheless, the SEC is eying a punitive disgorgement. A punitive disgorgement could deter other crypto players from battling the SEC in the courts.

XRP price trends will likely remain hinged on SEC plans to appeal the Programmatic Sales ruling. External forces may affect SEC plans to appeal and influence buyer appetite for XRP.

An ongoing Office of Inspector General (OIG) investigation into crypto conflicts of interest within the SEC could thwart SEC plans to appeal the ruling.

If the OIG finds the SEC accountable, the SEC may end plans to appeal against the Programmatic Sales ruling. As a result, Ripple can more aggressively target the US market. More significantly, ETF issuers could begin applying for XRP-spot ETFs.

Brad Garlinghouse, BlackRock, and XRP-Spot ETFs

In February, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse skirted around questions relating to BlackRock (BLK) and XRP-spot ETFs, saying,

“I’m not going to comment on that, and I know BlackRock has said some things publicly. We think it makes sense for the XRP community overall.”

Considering BTC price action since the January 11 launch of the Nine BTC-spot ETFs, the hint of a move toward an XRP-spot ETF market could supercharge an XRP rally.

Investors experienced a likely XRP reaction to an XRP-spot ETF filing in November. On November 13, XRP rallied to a session high of $0.7503 on fake news of BlackRock applying for an iShares XRP Trust (XRP-spot ETF).

Near-term, SEC v Ripple case-related news will remain the focal point. However, court rulings from other SEC v crypto cases may also affect SEC plans for the US digital asset space. The most high-profile case is the SEC v Coinbase (COIN) case.

Coinbase filed a Motion to Dismiss (MTD) in August, arguing the SEC lacks the statutory authority to regulate crypto exchanges. The door could also open to an XRP-spot ETF market if Judge Failla grants the Coinbase MTD.

The MTD also garnered the attention of Capitol Hill, highlighting the significance of the SEC v Coinbase case. Senator Cynthia Lummis filed an Amicus Brief in August supporting the Coinbase MTD.

Senators Cynthia Lummis and Kirsten Gillibrand proposed the Responsible Financial Innovation Act in 2022. The legislation aims to foster innovation while protecting US retail investors. Significantly, the bill would give the CFTC more powers to regulate the digital asset space.

XRP Price Action

Daily Chart

XRP sat above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, affirming the bullish price signals. Significantly, the 50-day EMA narrowed on the 200-day EMA, another bullish signal.

A return to the $0.60 handle would support a move to the $0.6354 resistance level.

SEC v crypto case-related updates and OIG investigation-related news need consideration.

However, a break below the $0.5835 support level would give the bears a run at the 200-day and 50-day EMAs.

The 14-day RSI reading, 65.24, suggests an XRP return to the $0.60 handle before entering overbought territory.

4-Hourly Chart

On the 4-hourly, XRP remained well above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, affirming the bullish price signals.

A move to the $0.60 handle would give the bulls a run at the $0.6354 resistance level.

However, a fall through the $0.5835 support level would bring the 50-day EMA into play.

The 4-hourly RSI, with a reading of 58.27, suggests an XRP move to the Thursday high of $0.6258 before entering overbought territory.