XRP declined by 1.13% on Monday. Partially reversing a 5.03% rally from Sunday, XRP closed the session at $0.4980.
On Tuesday, risk aversion affected the crypto market due to better-than-expected US retail sales figures for March. The retail sales figures further influenced expectations of 2024 Fed rate cuts. US retail sales increased by 0.7% after rising by 0.9% in February. Economists expected retail sales to advance by 0.3%.
10-year US Treasury yields rose by 1.77%, closing the session at 4.606%. The US equity markets also ended the session in negative territory. On Monday, the Nasdaq Composite Index slid by 1.79%. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East contributed to the losses.
XRP outperformed the broader crypto market. On Monday, the total crypto market cap fell by 2.99%, closing the session at $2,254 billion.
While external market forces impacted XRP and the broader market, the SEC vs. Ripple case remains the focal point.
There was no SEC v Ripple case-related news to influence XRP price trends on Monday. Nevertheless, it is an important week for the Ripple defense team, preparing its opposition brief.
According to the amended court briefing schedule, Ripple must file its opposition brief by April 22 and a redacted version by April 24. The SEC must file its reply brief by May 6.
Ripple will address allegations of post-complaint breaches of US securities laws in the opposition brief. In the opening brief, the SEC argued for a $2 billion disgorgement and for the court to prohibit Ripple from selling XRP to institutional investors. The SEC based its arguments on Ripple allegedly continuing to sell XRP to institutional investors after the complaint.
The XRP community could become aware if Ripple continued breaching US securities laws on April 24.
Before the April 22 court filing, there is a final pretrial conference on April 16. Judge Sarah Netburn will hold the final pretrial conference. Final pretrial conferences allow the parties to discuss settlement options with the Judge’s guidance. Since there is no trial, other matters could relate to the SEC opening and the Ripple opposition briefs.
A settlement seems unlikely when considering SEC plans to appeal the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling. If Ripple and the SEC settle, the SEC cannot appeal rulings from the case.
In October 2023, Judge Analisa Torres rejected the SEC motion for interlocutory appeal. The SEC filed a motion for interlocutory appeal in August 2023, citing the criticism from Judge Rakoff, the presiding Judge in the SEC vs. Terraform Labs case. In December 2023, Judge Rakoff ruled that Terraform Labs and Do Kwon breached US securities laws for failing to register Luna and TerraUSD.
XRP remained below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, affirming the bearish price signals.
An XRP breakout from the bottom trend line would support a move to the top trend line. A break above the top trend line could give the bulls a run at the $0.5739 resistance level.
Updates from the Middle East and SEC vs. crypto-related chatter warrant investor attention.
Conversely, a fall through the $0.48 handle could signal a drop below the $0.45 level.
The 14-day RSI reading, 32.75, suggests an XRP fall through the $0.48 handle before entering oversold territory.
On the 4-hourly, XRP hovered well below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs. The EMAs confirmed the bearish price trends.
A move through the bottom trend line could allow the bulls to test the $0.5361 resistance level and the top trend line. Selling pressure may intensify at the $0.5361 resistance level as the trend line is confluent with the resistance level.
However, an XRP drop below the $0.48 handle could bring the $0.45 handle into play.
The 4-hourly RSI, with a reading of 35.43, indicates an XRP fall to the $0.48 handle before entering oversold territory.
With over 20 years of experience in the finance industry, Bob has been managing regional teams across Europe and Asia and focusing on analytics across both corporate and financial institutions. Currently he is covering developments relating to the financial markets, including currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes, and global equities.