On Sunday (May 19), XRP fell by 2.11%. Following a 0.46% loss from Saturday, XRP ended the week up 1.98% to $0.5092.
The Q1 2024 XRP Markets Report failed to deliver a positive weekend for XRP. Investors brushed aside the reports of a 40% increase in trading volume and surge XRPL transactions.
Concerns about the ongoing SEC vs. Ripple case impacted buyer demand for XRP as another court deadline loomed. The quarterly report provided important updates from Q1 2024, highlighting the SEC’s demand for an almost $2 billion penalty for breaching US securities laws.
Ripple expects a court ruling on the penalty within the coming months, after which the SEC may appeal against the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling. The continued threat of an SEC appeal remained an XRP headwind.
Recent wins for the SEC could incentivize the SEC to file an appeal after a failed motion for interlocutory appeal in 2023.
In December, Judge Rakoff ruled Terraform Labs and Do Kwon had breached US securities laws for failing to register Luna and TerraUSD as securities. Judge Rakoff criticized the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling in August, stating that Judge Torres made an error when ruling that XRP was not a security when sold on exchanges.
However, the SEC v Coinbase (COIN) case may influence the SEC plans to appeal the Programmatic Sales ruling more. In March, Judge Failla denied, in large part, the Coinbase Motion to Dismiss (MTD).
Coinbase responded to the court ruling by filing a Motion for Interlocutory Appeal. If Judge Failla grants the motion, a successful appeal against the court ruling could impact the SEC plans for an appeal against the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling.
On Monday (May 20), the SEC vs. Ripple case will be in focus. According to the court schedule, the SEC, Ripple, and any third parties must file briefs opposing the omnibus letter motions. The court will then rule on the omnibus sealing motions. After the court ruling, the parties have 14 days to file redacted versions of all documents.
The outcome of the Ripple case could also influence SEC plans for an appeal. The SEC could have greater motivation to appeal if the court prohibits XRP sales to institutional investors and rules in favor of a circa $2 billion penalty.
XRP remained below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, sending bearish price signals.
If XRP breaks above the top trend line, it could move towards the 50-day EMA. A move through the 50-day EMA could give the bulls a run at the 200-day EMA and the $0.5739 resistance level.
SEC vs. Ripple case-related updates consideration.
Conversely, an XRP drop below the bottom trend line could bring the $0.48 handle into play.
The 14-day RSI reading, 44.85, suggests an XRP fall to the $0.48 handle level before entering oversold territory.
With over 20 years of experience in the finance industry, Bob has been managing regional teams across Europe and Asia and focusing on analytics across both corporate and financial institutions. Currently he is covering developments relating to the financial markets, including currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes, and global equities.