On Thursday, October 24, the SEC requested an extension to file its appeal-related opening brief, pushing the deadline to January 15, 2025. The SEC offered no reasons for the request, drawing criticism from the legal community. Pro-crypto lawyer Bill Morgan remarked on the request, stating,
“SEC: we request to be allowed to drag out the appeal as long as possible until the next crypto bear market. If the SEC always intended to appeal on programmatic sales it has had since 23 July 2023 to prepare a brief.”
Morgan speculated that the extension might indicate a deliberate delay or a lack of confidence in the agency’s chances of winning the appeal. He also observed,
“Since the case started against Ripple in December 2020 the SEC has continually filed documents at the last moment and regularly sought extensions of time. Maximum delay in concluding the legal process.”
Former SEC Lawyer Marc Fagel defended the extension, saying that litigators take as much time as possible, especially in the government, because of the multiple layers of review.
Ripple’s cross-appeal filing will be the next focal point, with the court unlikely to deny the extension request.
Fox Business journalist Eleanor Terrett shared the latest on Ripple’s cross-appeal plans, stating,
“Today. Ripple will file its Form C, outlining at a high level what it will seek to appeal in the SEC vs. Ripple case. As we saw the SEC appeal nearly everything it lost on at the district court level last week, Ripple is expected to appeal the only thing it lost on: The district court’s ruling that their institutional sales of XRP constituted sales of unregistered securities.”
Terrett also shared details of her interview with Ripple executives Brad Garlinghouse and Stuart Alderoty. Both expressed optimism about Ripple’s chances, with Alderoty stating,
“The second circuit traditionally, is not a fan of the SEC. They’re not a fan of regulatory overreach. And statistically, if you lose, your chances of getting the Second Circuit to reverse is around 10% or less.”
It is unlikely there will be any surprises in Ripple’s Form C that could impact XRP demand. However, the uncertainty surrounding the SEC’s appeal will keep XRP in limbo until the agency submits its brief in January 2025.
On Thursday, October 24, XRP advanced by 1.20%, partially recovering from a 1.39% loss in the previous session to close at $0.5318. However, XRP underperformed the broader crypto market, which gained 1.75%, taking the crypto market cap to $2.282 trillion.
XRP may continue to hover below the crucial $0.55 level as investors consider the SEC’s prospect in the Appellate courts. XRP may fall through $0.50 if the SEC files its brief early and offers convincing arguments to overturn the Programmatic Sales ruling. Conversely, XRP could retrace the July 2023 rally if the SEC withdraws its appeal.
While XRP remained pegged below $0.55, BTC attempted to break above the crucial $70,000 level. US labor market data and Services PMI figures boosted expectations for a soft US economic landing. The data also raised bets on multiple Q4 Fed rate cuts, driving BTC demand.
Initial jobless claims fell from 242k (week ending October 12) to 227k (week ending October 19). Tight labor market conditions could support wage growth, fueling consumer spending and demand-driven inflation.
Additionally, the US S&P Global Services PMI increased slightly from 55.2 in September to 55.3 in October, signaling a resilient US economy.
S&P Global Market Intelligence Chief Business Economist Chris Williamson commented on the October numbers, stating,
“October saw business activity continue to grow at an encouragingly solid pace, sustaining the economic upturn that has been recorded in the year to date into the fourth quarter. The October flash PMI is consistent with GDP growing at an annualized rate of around 2.5%.”
Nevertheless, the upbeat economic data failed to spook investors. The October Flash survey revealed slower inflation rates for input costs and prices charged. Prices charged fell to their lowest since May 2020, attributed to a sharp cooling of service sector inflation.
As a key driver for headline inflation, softer service sector inflation boosted bets on a December Fed rate cut. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the chances of a 25-basis point December Fed rate cut increased from 66.2% on October 23 to 73.0% on October 24.
On Wednesday, the US BTC-spot ETF market reported total net inflows of $192.4 million. iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) continued to lead the way, with net inflows of $317.5 million.
The US BTC-spot ETF market eyes a two-day inflow streak on Thursday, October 24, as investors await IBIT flow data. Rising bets on Fed rate cuts in November and December boosted demand for BTC-spot ETFs. According to Farside Investors,
Excluding flow data for IBIT, the US BTC-spot ETF market reported net inflows of $22.5 million. While inflows, excluding IBIT, are modest, another surge in demand for IBIT would set the BTC-spot ETF market for a second consecutive week of net inflows exceeding $1 billion for the first time since July.
Bloomberg Intelligence Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas remarked on the US BTC-spot ETF market flows, stating,
“Not yet 10mo old and the ETFs are 97% of the way to holding 1 million btc, and 87% of the way to passing Satoshi as biggest.”
Balchunas shared a top bitcoin holders table that showed Satoshi Nakamoto holding 1.1 million BTC. On a standalone basis, BlackRock (BLK) was third, holding 669,219 BTC. However, the US BTC-spot ETF market had a combined 967,793 BTC, ranking it second.
On Thursday, October 24, BTC advanced by 2.28%, reversing a 1.09% loss from the previous session to close at $68,165.
On Friday, October 25, the US Presidential Election, US economic data, and US BTC-spot ETF market flow trends require consideration.
A break above $70,000 could signal a move toward the all-time high of $73,808.
With over 20 years of experience in the finance industry, Bob has been managing regional teams across Europe and Asia and focusing on analytics across both corporate and financial institutions. Currently he is covering developments relating to the financial markets, including currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes, and global equities.