On Wednesday, XRP gained 4.46%. Partially reversing a 9.33% tumble from Tuesday, XRP ended the day at $0.6109.
Fed fear turned to Fed relief on Wednesday. The FOMC left interest rates at 5.50%. Significantly, the FOMC median projection for the 2024 Fed Funds Rate remained at 4.60%. Projections of three Fed rate cuts in 2024 and 2024 growth forecasts fueled demand for riskier assets.
Nonetheless, XRP trailed the broader crypto market. The ongoing SEC v Ripple case remained an XRP headwind.
According to the latest court briefing schedule, the SEC must file its remedy-related opening brief by Mar 22. The SEC will argue for a punitive penalty to deter breaches of Section 5 of the 1933 Securities Act.
In July 2023, Judge Analisa Torres ruled that Ripple breached Section 5 of the Securities Act for failing to register XRP as a security in sales to institutional investors.
However, the crypto market may have to wait until Mar 26 to access a redacted version of the remedy-related opening brief. On Tuesday, Mar 19, the SEC and Ripple filed a joint sealing proposal. According to the proposal, the SEC must file a public, redacted version of the brief by Mar 26. The SEC and Ripple must meet by Mar 25 to discuss redactions.
Ripple must file its remedy-related opposition brief by Apr 22. If the opposition brief contains confidential or highly confidential information, Ripple will file a public redacted version by Apr 24.
The SEC will file a public redacted version of its reply brief by May 8.
For Ripple and the crypto market, the chances of a settlement continue to fade. However, SEC plans to appeal the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling remained intact and an XRP headwind.
In the July 2023 ruling, Judge Torres ruled that Programmatic Sales of XRP do not satisfy the third prong of the Howey Test. In October 2023, the court rejected the SEC interlocutory appeal against the Programmatic Sales ruling. As a result, the SEC must wait until the end of the SEC vs. Ripple case to file appeals against court rulings.
XRP hovered above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, sending bullish price signals.
An XRP return to the $0.62 handle could give the bulls a run at the $0.6609 resistance level. A breakout from the $0.6609 resistance level would support a move toward the $0.70 handle.
BTC-spot ETF market flow data, SEC vs. crypto case-related updates, and SEC-related chatter need consideration.
Conversely, a drop below the 50-day EMA could signal a fall to the trend line, the $0.5740 support level, and the 200-day EMA Buying pressure could intensify at the trend line. The $0.5740 support level and the 200-day EMA are confluent with the trend line.
The 14-day RSI reading, 49.39, indicates an XRP break below the trend line before entering oversold territory.
On the 4-hourly, XRP remained below the 50-day EMA while hovering above the 200-day EMA. The EMAs sent bearish near-term but bullish longer-term price signals.
An XRP break above the 50-day EMA would support a move toward the $0.6609 resistance level.
On the other hand, an XRP drop below the 200-day EMA would give the bears a run at the $0.5740 support level and the trend line.
The 4-hourly RSI, with a reading of 49.11, suggests an XRP break below the trend line before entering oversold territory.
With over 20 years of experience in the finance industry, Bob has been managing regional teams across Europe and Asia and focusing on analytics across both corporate and financial institutions. Currently he is covering developments relating to the financial markets, including currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes, and global equities.