On Saturday, February 15, XRP extended its winning streak to four sessions, rising 0.91%. Adding to Friday’s 6.86% rally, XRP closed at $2.7627. Significantly, XRP outperformed the broader market, which dropped by 0.24% to a total crypto market cap of $3.18 trillion. Hopes for an XRP-spot ETF market bolstered XRP demand.
This week, the SEC acknowledged 19b-4 filings from Grayscale and 21Shares, raising expectations for an XRP-spot ETF market. The SEC’s acknowledgments highlighted the agency’s shift in stance toward cryptos.
Approval of XRP-spot ETFs could fuel demand for the token, potentially driving XRP past its January 2018 record high of $3.5505. Since launching in January 2023, demand through BTC-spot ETFs contributed to BTC’s surge to a record high of $109,312.
Other issuers awaiting acknowledgment include Bitwise, Canary Funds, and WisdomTree.
The SEC’s acknowledgment of XRP-spot ETF applications has fueled speculation that it may withdraw its appeal in the Ripple case.
The SEC filed its appeal-related opening brief on January 15, challenging the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling. Since then, major leadership changes have occurred.
Gary Gensler stepped down as SEC Chair, Trump appointed Mark Ueda as acting Chair, and Commissioner Hester Peirce became head of the newly established Crypto Task Force.
Notably, recent SEC vs. crypto court filings suggest the Crypto Task Force is working toward resolving the agency’s long-standing feud with the US crypto industry. Key legal developments include:
These court filings have fueled optimism that the SEC may withdraw its appeal in the Ripple case. However, the SEC could wait for Paul Atkins’ confirmation before any court action. Ripple must file its appeal-related reply brief by April 16. The deadline could come after Atkins’ confirmation, allowing acting Chair Uyeda and Commission Peirce to prioritize other crypto enforcement cases first.
Near-term price outlook hinges on the SEC’s appeal strategy in the Ripple case and XRP-spot ETF approvals.
After the four-day winning streak, XRP sits above the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), sending bullish price signals.
If XRP returns to $3, the bulls may target the January 16 high of $3.3999. A breakout from $3.3999 could signal a move toward the all-time high of $3.5505.
Conversely, a drop below the 50-day EMA and $2.5 could signal a fall toward the $1.9299 support level and the February 3 low of $1.7024.
With a 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 55.68, XRP could break above the January 2025 high of $3.3999 before entering overbought territory (RSI above 70).
XRP’s price trajectory remains closely tied to regulatory developments, particularly the SEC’s appeal decision. Broader macroeconomic influences, including US tariffs and Fed rate cut expectations, may also influence investor sentiment.
While Trump’s re-election initially boosted market optimism, his subsequent tariff policies have weighed on XRP prices. XRP fell from $3.1341 to a February 3 low of $1.7938 on tariff concerns before partially recovering. Economists warn that higher import costs and inflationary pressures from tariffs could delay Fed rate cuts, impacting risk assets like XRP.
Investors should watch for SEC actions that could drive the next major move. View our latest technical and legal analysis here.
With over 28 years of experience in the financial industry, Bob has worked with various global rating agencies and multinational banks. Currently he is covering currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes and global equities, focusing mostly on European and Asian markets.