On Tuesday, XRP tumbled 9.33%. Reversing a 4.23% rally from Monday, XRP ended the day at $0.5848.
BTC-spot ETF Market flow data for Mar 18 fueled a broad-based crypto market sell-off. On Mar 18, the BTC-spot ETF market saw net outflows of $154.4 million. Significantly, the market saw net outflows for the first time since Mar 1 and only the third time since Jan 25.
The BTC-spot ETF market reacted to falling bets on an H1 2024 Fed rate cut. Uncertainty about the Fed rate path continued to grip the crypto market, which is experiencing more accustomed volatility levels.
On Tuesday (Mar 19), the total crypto market cap declined by 8.17% to $2,262 billion.
While the crypto market looks toward the Fed for guidance, the SEC remains in the spotlight.
On Tuesday, Ripple Chief Legal Officer Stuart Alderoty reacted to the courts sanctioning the SEC, saying,
“Today, a Federal Court sanctioned the SEC for abusing its unique status to present evidence that was false, mischaracterized, and/or misleading. If anyone thinks this conduct by this agency under this leadership is limited to this case, I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell.”
The Ripple CLO referred to the courts denying the SEC Motion to Dismiss the charges in the SEC v Debt Box case.
On Monday, Judge Robert Shelby denied the Motion to Dismiss, citing bad faith conduct. In November, Judge Shelby ordered the SEC to show cause why the court should not sanction SEC lawyers over making false and misleading representations to the court. The SEC filed a Motion to Dismiss in response to the court order.
In December, Alderoty highlighted several cases where the courts singled out the SEC, including SEC vs. Ripple, SEC vs. Coinbase, and Grayscale vs. SEC.
However, the latest blemish has not yet drawn the attention of US lawmakers. In February, five US Senators, including Senator Cynthia Lummis, co-signed a letter to SEC Chair Gary Gensler.
The letter referenced the court order in the SEC vs. Debt Box case. Notably, the Senators threatened scrutiny of SEC cases, saying,
“Regardless of whether Commission staff deliberately misrepresented evidence or unknowingly presented false information, this case suggests other enforcement cases brought by the Commission may be deserving of scrutiny. It is difficult to maintain confidence that other cases are not predicated upon dubious evidence, obfuscations, or outright misrepresentations.”
The increased scrutiny of the SEC comes at a poignant time for Ripple and XRP.
Pressure is building on US lawmakers to roll out a crypto regulatory framework. In the meantime, the SEC must file its remedy-related opening brief by Mar 22. The SEC will argue for a punitive penalty for Ripple failing to register XRP as a security in sales to institutional investors.
The penalty will draw investor interest and may impact buyer appetite for XRP. However, SEC plans to appeal the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling remains a more significant headwind.
Nonetheless, ongoing investigations into alleged crypto conflicts within the SEC could end plans to appeal the Programmatic Sales ruling. The SEC may appeal against the Programmatic Sales ruling at the end of the SEC v Ripple case.
According to the amended court briefing schedule, Ripple must file its remedy-related opposition brief by Apr 22. The SEC must file its reply brief by May 6. The timeline suggests a court ruling on the penalty for breaching Section 5 of the 1933 Securities Act in the summer.
Empower Oversight and the Office of Inspector General are investigating conflicts of interest related to the SEC vs. Ripple case. Findings of financial conflicts of interest could force the SEC to step back from regulating the US digital asset space through enforcement. Significantly, adverse findings could end SEC plans to appeal against the Programmatic Sales ruling.
XRP sat below the 50-day EMA while holding above the 200-day. The EMAs sent bearish near-term but bullish longer-term price signals.
An XRP break above the 50-day EMA would support a move toward the $0.6609 resistance level. An XRP return to the $0.6609 resistance level would give the bulls a run at the $0.70 handle.
SEC vs. crypto-case related news, investigations into the SEC, and the Fed need consideration.
Conversely, a break below the trend line, the $0.5740 support level, and the 200-day EMA could signal a fall to the $0.55 handle. Buying pressure may intensify at the trend line. The $0.5740 support level and the 200-day EMA are confluent with the trend line.
The 14-day RSI reading, 45.81, suggests an XRP fall to $0.55 before entering oversold territory.
On the 4-hourly, XRP sat below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, sending bearish price signals.
An XRP return to the $0.60 handle would support a break above the 200-day EMA. A break above the 200-day EMA could give the bulls a run at the 50-day EMA and the $0.6609 resistance level.
On the other hand, an XRP break below the $0.5740 support level and the trend line could give the bears a run at the $0.55 handle. Buying pressure may intensify at the trend line. The $0.5470 support level is confluent with the trend line.
The 4-hourly RSI, with a reading of 39.99, indicates an XRP fall below the trend line before entering oversold territory.
With over 20 years of experience in the finance industry, Bob has been managing regional teams across Europe and Asia and focusing on analytics across both corporate and financial institutions. Currently he is covering developments relating to the financial markets, including currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes, and global equities.