On Wednesday, November 6, Donald Trump completed his political comeback, winning the US presidential election. Significantly, the Republicans also gained control of the US Senate, though the House’s control remains undecided. Trump’s victory boosted buyer demand for XRP and the broader market.
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse reacted to the US presidential election result, stating,
“Donald Trump, Congratulations! Some fodder for your first 100-day checklist to get things moving: – Fire Gensler. Day 1, no delays. – In his place, appoint Giancarlo, Brooks, or Gallagher – they’d be massive upgrades in rebuilding the rule of law (and reputation) at the SEC. – Host a family dinner and get the Rs and Ds moving the digital asset market structure bill forward in the Senate. – And last but not least, can we get some clarity…..similar to XRP and BTC, that ETH is not security, right?!”
Ripple Chief Legal Officer Stuart Alderoty also congratulated the US President-Elect, thanking him for listening to the Ripple story in San Francisco and prioritizing crypto as a key issue. Alderoty also called for Trump to end the SEC’s regulation-by-enforcement approach.
As the dust settles from the US presidential election, investors should turn their focus to the Ripple case. In October, the SEC filed the Notice of Appeal, challenging the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling and the final judgment.
Will the SEC withdraw its appeal against rulings in the Ripple case?
During his campaign, Trump pledged to fire SEC Chair Gary Gensler on his first day in office, set for January 20, 2025. However, this date falls just days after the SEC’s deadline to submit its appeal-related opening brief.
Given Trump’s plans to replace Gensler, the SEC may face pressure to withdraw the appeal. While unlikely, the SEC may have extended the deadline to file its appeal-related opening brief to factor in the election result.
Trump’s victory could be significant for XRP. If the SEC withdraws its appeal, XRP could climb to $1.00, mirroring the July 2023 rally in response to the Programmatic Sales ruling.
On Wednesday, November 6, XRP rallied 5.45%, following a 2.19% gain from the previous session, closing at $0.5422. However, XRP trailed the broader crypto market, which jumped by 9.01%, bringing the total market cap to $2.468 trillion.
Turning our focus to BTC, the US presidential election materially influenced buyer demand.
Trump led from the start of the Wednesday session (UTC), raising hopes for an end to the SEC’s era of regulation by enforcement. However, Trump’s victory could be more significant for BTC as he had previously pledged to make BTC a US strategic reserve. Trump also said the US government would become a BTC HODLER.
BTC demand could surge if Trump moves forward with his strategic reserve plan. Furthermore, making the US government a BTC HODLER would mitigate oversupply risk; the US government has a BTC stockpile of 208,109 BTC, equivalent to $15.69 billion.
On Tuesday, the US BTC-spot ETF market saw total net outflows of $116.8 million, down from outflows of $541.1 million on Monday. Uncertainty about the US presidential election impacted demand for US BTC-spot ETFs. However, demand surged on Wednesday, November 6, as investors reacted to the US presidential election.
According to Farside Investors:
Excluding flow data for iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), the US BTC-spot ETF market had net inflows of $691.0 million. The US BTC-spot ETF market last reported a $1 billion day in March 2024. Inflows of $1 billion could signal a potentially seismic shift in the supply-demand balance.
On Thursday, November 7, the US Federal Reserve will deliver its penultimate monetary policy decision for 2024. Economists expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.75%.
Unless the Fed surprises markets by holding on interest rates at 5.0%, the FOMC press conference could have a greater influence on BTC demand. Fed support for a 25-basis point December rate cut could drive BTC toward $80,000. Conversely, hints of a December policy hold may dampen BTC demand. Nevertheless, US politics will likely trump the Fed, signaling a bullish near-term outlook.
On Wednesday, November 6, BTC surged by 8.23%, following Tuesday’s 2.32% gain, closing at $75,176. Significantly, BTC climbed to an all-time high of $76,004.
With over 20 years of experience in the finance industry, Bob has been managing regional teams across Europe and Asia and focusing on analytics across both corporate and financial institutions. Currently he is covering developments relating to the financial markets, including currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes, and global equities.