On Wednesday, December 18, the focus shifted from the SEC vs. Ripple case to the Fed. In line with expectations, the US Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points. However, a more hawkish Fed rate path outlook spooked investors, sending XRP to a Wednesday session low of $2.2463.
The FOMC Economic Projections revealed a significant revision for the 2025 Fed Funds Rate, increasing from 3.4% to 3.9%.
Amid the market fallout from the Fed’s hawkish pivot, the Senate Banking Committee unexpectedly canceled its vote on SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw’s renomination. This development follows heightened political tension over Crenshaw’s perceived anti-crypto stance.
Republican Senator Bill Hagerty shared the news, stating,
“Today, my Republican colleagues and I blocked Banking Democrats’ 11th-hour attempt to install an anti-crypto, climate activist at the SEC. Thank you to incoming Chairman Senator Tim Scott for his efforts to block radical nominees from getting confirmed.”
The failed renomination vote means Democrat Commissioner Crenshaw will leave the SEC alongside Chair Gensler and Commissioner Jaime Lizarraga. Commissioner Lizarraga and Chair Gensler leave the SEC on January 17 and 20, respectively, paving the way for a crypto-friendly agency.
Notably, Crenshaw’s looming departure raises questions about the SEC’s appeal plans in the Ripple case. While Chair Gensler may file the opening brief by the January 15 deadline, new crypto-friendly leadership could withdraw it altogether.
Pro-crypto lawyer James ‘MetaLawMan’ Murphy commented on the news, saying,
“This is a little surprising, given that Sherrod Brown controls the Senate Banking Committee with a Democrat majority until the new Congress is sworn in. This means one or more of those Democrats refused to back Crenshaw’s nomination. The crypto lobby is strong.”
On Wednesday, December 18, XRP tumbled 10.07%, reversing Tuesday’s 3.39% rally to close at $2.3098. XRP underperformed the broader crypto market, which slid by 6.08% to a total market cap of $3.410 trillion as investors reacted to the Fed’s rate path outlook.
However, the departure of Commissioners Crenshaw, Lizarraga, and Chair Gensler could allow the SEC to withdraw its Ripple appeal.
If the agency withdraws its appeal, XRP could target January 2018’s all-time high of $3.5505. However, XRP could face initial selling pressure if the SEC files its opening brief by January 15, potentially dragging the token below $2.00.
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On Wednesday, bitcoin (BTC) dropped below $100k for the first time in five sessions. Investors reacted to the Fed’s upward revisions to its inflation and Fed Funds Rate projections. A higher-for-longer rate path could raise borrowing costs, impacting demand for riskier assets.
The Fed’s policy outlook overshadowed market optimism about BTC becoming a US strategic reserve asset (SBR). Wednesday’s pullback also underscored the Fed’s continued influence on the crypto market.
Tony Sycamore, Market Analyst at IG, commented on BTC’s price movements, saying,
“Bitcoin trades lower at $100,904 (-5.0%) as risk sentiment took a hit and US yields and the US dollar (rallied) following this morning’s hawkish FOMC rate cut. In a post above on BTC yesterday, we noted the bearish divergence evident on the RSI and the possible formation of a loss-of-momentum daily candle, which we said would increase ‘the chances of a corrective pullback.’”
On Tuesday, December 17, the US BTC-spot ETF market extended its inflow streak to 14 sessions, the longest since February. BlackRock’s (BLK) iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) ensured the winning streak stayed alive, with net inflows of $741.4 million. Excluding IBIT, the US BTC-spot ETF market had net outflows of $247.5 million.
Early flow trends for the Wednesday session suggest IBIT will need another stellar day to extend the inflow streak to 15 sessions. According to Farside Investors:
Excluding iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), the US BTC-spot ETF market saw total net outflows of $84.3 million.
The US BTC-spot ETF market’s demand remains pivotal for price trends, with the current inflow streak pushing BTC to an all-time high of $108,237.
On Wednesday, December 18, BTC slid by 5.61%, reversing Tuesday’s 0.37% gain, closing at $100,189.
Near-term BTC price trends will hinge on US BTC-spot ETF flows, SBR-related news, and US government BTC sales. A substantial BTC sale by the US government amid waning demand for BTC-spot ETFs could retrigger oversupply fears, potentially pulling toward $95,000. Conversely, BTC-spot ETF market inflows and progress toward an SBR could push BTC toward $110,000.
XRP and Bitcoin remain at pivotal points. XRP’s trajectory depends on the SEC’s appeal plans, while ETF flows and SBR discussions will dictate BTC demand.
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With over 20 years of experience in the finance industry, Bob has been managing regional teams across Europe and Asia and focusing on analytics across both corporate and financial institutions. Currently he is covering developments relating to the financial markets, including currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes, and global equities.