XRP News: XRP-Spot ETFs and SEC Plans to Appeal the Programmatic Sales Ruling

Key Insights:

• XRP gained 0.79% on Saturday, ending the session at $0.5745.
• SEC plans to appeal the Programmatic Sales ruling and reduced chances of an XRP-spot ETF left XRP at sub-$0.60.
• On Sunday, the focus will remain on SEC v crypto, BTC-spot ETF-related news, and US lawmaker scrutiny.

The Saturday Overview

On Saturday, XRP gained 0.79%. Partially reversing a 5.35% loss from Friday, XRP ended the session at $0.5745.

The Inclusions and Exclusions of XRP from Investment Vehicles

In the recent rebalancing, Grayscale included XRP in its Digital Large Cap Fund (GDLF). The inclusion raised expectations of an XRP-spot ETF application. However, the crypto market has pulled back from early 2024 highs as investors await an inflow of new money.

On Friday, January 12, HKVAC announced its rebalancing results for the HKVAC Key and Market Indexes. The changes are effective from January 19, 2024.

HKVAC removed XRP from its HKVAC Cryptocurrency Global Large Top5 Index and Cryptocurrency Global Large Top5 Equal Weight Index, replacing XRP with solana (SOL).

The rebalancing was not because of the ongoing SEC v Ripple case or SEC plans to appeal the Programmatic Sales ruling. SOL had an impressive Q4 2023, striking a 2023 high of $126.35 in December. SOL flipped XRP, placing it in the top 5 and into the HKVAC Top5 crypto indexes.

SEC v Ripple Case and SEC Appeal Threat a Headwind

There were no SEC v Ripple case-related updates to influence XRP price trends. The SEC and Ripple are progressing through remedies-related discovery. Discovery will conclude on February 12. After discovery, the SEC and Ripple will present arguments regarding the penalty for XRP sales to US institutional investors.

The SEC and Ripple must file remedy-related briefs by March 19 and April 12, respectively. As per the court briefing schedule, the SEC must file a reply brief by April 19. Judge Analisa Torres will deliberate and decide the penalty Ripple must pay for breaking securities laws.

Significantly, the SEC can then appeal against the Programmatic Sales ruling. XRP rallied to a 2023 high of $0.9327 in response to the Programmatic Sales ruling. However, the threat of an SEC appeal against the court ruling left XRP trailing the broader market in 2023. XRP ended 2023 at $0.6151.

In the near term, the SEC appeal threats and reduced expectations for a crypto-spot ETF market could test buyer appetite. On Wednesday, January 10, SEC Chair Gary Gensler poured cold water on hopes of a crypto-spot ETF market. The SEC Chair said,

“Importantly, today’s Commission action is cabined to ETPs holding one non-security commodity, bitcoin. It should in no way signal the Commission’s willingness to approve listing standards for crypto asset securities.”

XRP Price Action

Daily Chart

XRP remained below the 50-day EMA while holding above the 200-day EMA, sending bearish near-term but bullish longer-term price signals.

An XRP break above the $0.5835 resistance level would support a move to the 50-day EMA. A move through the 50-day EMA would give the bulls a run at the $0.6354 resistance level.

On Sunday, the focus will be on SEC v crypto case-related chatter, BTC-spot ETF inflow/outflow numbers, and US lawmaker scrutiny.

However, a fall through the 200-day EMA would bring the $0.5470 support level into play.

The 14-day RSI reading, 43.48, indicates an XRP drop to the $0.5470 support level before entering oversold territory.

4-Hourly Chart

On the 4-hourly, XRP remained below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, confirming bearish price trends.

An XRP break above the 50-day EMA and the $0.5835 resistance level would support a move to the 200-day EMA. Selling pressure could intensify at $0.5830. The 50-day EMA is confluent with the resistance level.

However, a fall through the $0.56 handle would bring the $0.5470 support level into play.

The 4-hourly RSI, with a reading of 44.85, suggests a fall to the $0.5470 support level before entering oversold territory.