XRP News: XRP-Spot ETFs, SEC v Ripple, and the SEC v Coinbase

Key Insights:

• XRP rose by 0.28% on Sunday, ending the session at $0.5761.
• Speculation about an XRP-spot ETF market contributed to the gains.
• On Monday, the focus will be on SEC v Ripple case-related updates, SEC v Coinbase, BTC-spot ETF-related news, and SEC activity.

The Sunday Overview

On Sunday, XRP rose by 0.28%. Following a 0.79% gain on Saturday, XRP ended the session at $0.5761.

Investor Bets on an XRP-Spot ETF Market Lingers

XRP bucked the broader market trend on Sunday, with the total crypto market cap falling 2.58% to $1,602 billion. Investor expectations about the launch of an XRP-spot ETF drove buyer demand for XRP.

Speculation about an XRP-spot ETF surfaced after Grayscale included XRP in its Digital Large Cap Fund (GDLF). Expectations of an XRP-spot ETF linger despite recent comments from SEC Chair Gary Gensler. The SEC Chair warned against speculation about the approval of crypto-spot ETFs, saying,

“Importantly, today’s Commission action is cabined to ETPs holding one non-security commodity, bitcoin. It should in no way signal the Commission’s willingness to approve listing standards for crypto asset securities.”

XRP has an advantage over its peers. The Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling would allow for an XRP-spot ETF. However, the SEC may decline applications for XRP-spot ETFs on SEC plans to appeal the court ruling.

Nonetheless, Coinbase (COIN) could scupper SEC plans to appeal the Programmatic Sales ruling.

SEC v Coinbase: Wednesday Court Hearing Pivotal for US Crypto Market

On Wednesday, January 17, Judge Katherine Failla will hear oral arguments on the Coinbase motion to dismiss (MTD). Coinbase filed an MTD in August, arguing the SEC lacks the statutory authority to regulate crypto exchanges.

If Judge Failla grants the Coinbase MTD, the ruling could set precedence for the broader crypto market. A Coinbase win could force the SEC to rein in its legal onslaught of the US digital asset space.

In September, Amicus Curiae attorney John E Deaton had this to say,

“I doubt the Solicitor General would allow an appeal in that scenario, one that could reach the Supreme Court, allowing for the high Court to further strip away, not only the SEC’s power but all other federal agencies as well.”

Significantly, an SEC appeal against the Programmatic Sales ruling could end up in the Supreme Court. In November, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse shared his views on an SEC appeal, saying,

“The current Supreme Court, we’d love to see the Vegas odds on how that would go. They have not been friendly to regulators.”

A Coinbase win against the SEC could give much-needed regulatory clarity to the US crypto market. Reduced authority for the SEC to regulate by enforcement could drive lawmaker support for the Lummis-Gillibrand Responsible Financial Innovation Act.

Senator Cynthia Lummis supported the Coinbase MTD, filing an Amicus Curiae brief in August.

There were no SEC v Ripple case-related updates to influence buyer appetite for XRP on Sunday. Ripple must provide the SEC with 2022-23 financial statements and post-complaint contracts governing XRP institutional sales by January 19. The SEC filed a Motion to Compel on January 11, asking the court to order Ripple to submit the documents under discovery.

XRP Price Action

Daily Chart

XRP sat below the 50-day EMA while remaining above the 200-day EMA, sending bearish near-term but bullish longer-term price signals.

An XRP move through the $0.5835 resistance level and the 50-day EMA would bring the $0.6354 resistance level into play.

On Monday, the focus will be on SEC activity, SEC v crypto case-related updates, and BTC-spot ETF inflow/outflow data.

However, a break below the 200-day EMA would give the bears a run at the $0.5470 support level.

The 14-day RSI reading, 45.83, suggests an XRP fall to the $0.5470 support level before entering oversold territory.

4-Hourly Chart

On the 4-hourly, XRP hovered above the 50-day EMA while remaining below the 200-day EMA, sending bullish near-term but bearish longer-term price signals.

An XRP break above the $0.5835 resistance level would bring the 200-day EMA into play.

However, a drop below the 50-day EMA would support a move toward the $0.5470 support level.

The 4-hourly RSI, with a reading of 53.76, indicates an XRP move to the 200-day EMA before entering overbought territory.