XRP Price Action in the Hands of US Nonfarm Payrolls and the Courts

Key Insights:

• On Thursday, XRP rose by 1.79% to support a current weekly gain of 3.43%.
• The upside came despite positive US economic indicators and continued uncertainty over the pending SEC v Ripple ruling.
• The technical indicators remain bearish. With XRP sitting below the 50-day EMA, a return to sub-$0.30 remains in play.

On Thursday, XRP rose by 1.79%. Following a 0.36% gain on Wednesday, XRP ended the day at $0.33322. For the current week, XRP is up 3.43%, with three bullish sessions from four delivering the upside.

Bearish through the morning, XRP fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.3226 to a low of $0.32169. However, finding late support from the broader market, XRP struck a day high of $0.33322. XRP broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.3328 to end the day at $0.33322.

US economic indicators dragged XRP to the day low before finding support from the NASDAQ 100 and the broader crypto market.

A pending Court ruling on the SEC v Ripple case, US economic indicators, and sentiment toward Fed monetary policy remained XRP headwinds throughout the session.

Silence from the Courts Leaves XRP in the Hands of the Fed

On Thursday, there were no SEC v Ripple case updates to draw investor attention away from the US economic calendar.

In August, the ISM Manufacturing PMI held steady at 52.8. Economists forecast a decline to 52.0. Significantly, the employment sub-component jumped from 49.9 to 54.2.

Earlier in the session, initial jobless claims fell from 237k to 232k, with the 4-week average down from 245.5k to 241.5k. Thursday’s data set suggests that the Fed’s rate hikes and forward guidance had a muted impact on hiring. Failure to curb the pace of hiring could force the Fed into more aggressive policy maneuvers to bring inflation to target.

While investors focus on US economic indicators and Fed monetary policy, the ongoing SEC v Ripple case continues to influence.

Investors currently await the Court’s decision on the SEC objection to a Court ruling denying the SEC motion to shield the Hinman speech-related documents under the attorney-client privilege.

The former SEC Director of the Division of Corporation Finance, William Hinman, is a central figure in the SEC v Ripple case. In a famous 2018 speech, Hinman said that Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are not securities.

A decision could come at any time, limiting any near-term upside. XRP last visited $0.40 on July 30.

XRP Price Action

At the time of writing, XRP was down 1.03% to $0.32980. A bearish start to the day saw XRP fall from a high of $0.33311 to a low of $0.32980.

Technical Indicators

XRP needs to avoid the $0.3294 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.3371.

XRP will need broader market support for a breakout from the Thursday high of $0.33322, with US labor market stats due out later today.

In the case of an extended crypto rally, XRP would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.3409. US nonfarm payrolls and wage growth figures for August will need to disappoint to support an XRP return to $0.34.

The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.3524. A Court ruling in favor of Ripple would support a move to $0.35 to target $0.40.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.3255 into play. In the case of a broad-based crypto sell-off, fueled by positive US economic indicators, XRP could test support at $0.32 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.3178.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.3063.

The EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bearish signal.

At the time of writing, XRP sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.33344. The 100-day EMA fell back from the 200-day EMA, with the 50-day EMA easing back from the 200-day EMA. The XRP price signals were bearish.

A further pullback of the 50-day EMA from the 200-day EMA would bring the Major Support Levels into play. However, an XRP move through the 50-day EMA ($0.33344) and R1 ($0.3371) would give the bulls a run at R2 ($0.3409) and the 100-day EMA ($0.34154).