XRP Price Action Overshadows Optimism Towards the SEC v Ripple Case

Key Insights:

• On Sunday, XRP slid by 5.34%. Reversing a 5.87% gain from Saturday, XRP ended the week at $0.35723.
• Investor optimism towards the outcome of the SEC v Ripple case took a back seat, with a broad-based crypto sell-off weighing.
• The technical indicators turned bearish, with XRP sitting below the 200-day EMA, supporting a return to sub-$0.30.

On Sunday, XRP slid by 5.34%. Reversing a 5.87% gain from Saturday, XRP ended the week up 0.69% to $0.35723.

After a mixed start to the day, XRP rose to a late high of $0.39793. XRP broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.3893 before sliding to a final hour low of $0.35570. XRP fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.3561 before a partial recovery to $0.3572.

Hopes of a favorable outcome to the SEC v Ripple case supported an XRP run at $0.40. However, bearish sentiment from across the broader crypto market weighed, sending XRP into negative territory.

Investor apprehension ahead of the Fed monetary policy decision on Wednesday and the FOMC economic projections likely led to the late Sunday reversal. Fears of a hawkish Fed sending the global economy into a recession added to the market angst.

While XRP remains at the mercy of the Fed, the ongoing SEC v Ripple case will continue to influence.

Early Filings Shift Focus to Oppositions to Summary Judgment Motions

Over the weekend, the SEC and the Defendants (Ripple Labs, Brad Garlinghouse, and Chris Larsen) filed Motions for Summary Judgement ahead of schedule.

Following the filings, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse stated on Twitter,

“Today’s filings make it clear the SEC isn’t interested in applying the law. They want to remake it all in an impermissible effort to expand their jurisdiction far beyond the authority granted to them by Congress.”

Ripple Defense counsel Stuart Alderoty said,

“My hot take – after two years of litigation, the SEC is unable to identify any contract for investment (that’s what the statute requires); and cannot satisfy a single prong of the Supreme Court’s Howey test. Everything else is just noise.”

With both sides filing early, the focus will return to the Court schedule. Defense attorney James Filan shared a scheduling update, with the next calendar date being October 18, where

“Parties file all materials relating to oppositions to summary judgment motions temporarily under seal, including briefs, Rule 56.1 counterstatements, and supporting exhibits.”

For XRP, any hint of a settlement would support a breakout from the current price ranges.

XRP Price Action

At the time of writing, XRP was down 3.26% to $0.34558. A mixed start to the day saw XRP rise to an early high of $0.36504 before sliding to a low of $0.34500.

Technical Indicators

XRP needs to move through the $0.3703 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.3849 and the Sunday high of $0.39793.

Following Sunday’s broad-based crypto sell-off, crypto market sentiment will need to improve to support a return to $0.37. In the case of a crypto market rebound, XRP could take another run at $0.40. However, XRP will likely fall short of the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.4125.

Updates on the SEC v Ripple case will continue to influence. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.4547.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.3426 in play. In the case of another extended sell-off, XRP would likely test support at the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.3281.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.2858.

The EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bearish signal.

At the time of writing, XRP sat below the 200-day EMA, currently at $0.34671. The 50-day EMA narrowed to the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA converging on the 200-day EMA. The signals were price negatives.

An XRP breakout from the EMAs would support a recovery and a run at R1 ($0.3849). However, failure to move through the 200-day and 100-day EMAs would leave the Major Support Levels in play.