XRP Price Action Turns Bullish as Focus Returns to the SEC v Ripple Case

Key Insights:

• On Thursday, XRP bucked the broader market trend, falling by 1.91%.
• There were no SEC v Ripple case updates to draw investor attention away from US economic indicators and a choppy NASDAQ session.
• The technical indicators are bullish, with XRP sitting above the 50-day EMA, supporting a return to $0.55.

On Thursday, XRP fell by 1.91%. Reversing a 0.74% gain from Wednesday, XRP ended the day at $0.47903. Notably, XRP ended the day at sub-$0.49 for the third time in eight sessions.

A mixed start to the day saw XRP rise to an early high of $0.48938 before hitting reverse. Falling short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.4953, XRP tumbled to a late morning low of $0.44112.

XRP fell through the Major Support Levels before moving back through the Third Major Support Level (S3) at $0.4614 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.4751 to end the day at $0.47903.

There were no updates from the ongoing SEC v Ripple case to deliver XRP price support following I-Remit’s Amicus Brief filing on Wednesday.

Bearish Sentiment and US CPI Report Leaves XRP in the Red

Market angst ahead of the US CPI report sent XRP to the late morning low. While US inflation softened in September, the latest numbers reflected resilient price pressures.

In response, the probability of a 75-basis point rate interest hike in November jumped from 84.5% to 96.3%. Significantly, the chances of a 75-basis point Fed rate hike in December jumped from 28.6% to 71.5%.

However, despite the increased chance of a hawkish December hike, XRP recovered most of the session losses, supported by the NASDAQ 100. The NASDAQ 100 rose by 2.23% on Thursday.

Crypto market volatility overshadowed the latest updates from the SEC v Ripple case, which remain XRP positive. On Wednesday, I-Remit formally filed its Amicus Brief, which attempted to show that XRP is not a security. The filing discussed the uses of XRP in everyday business and referenced the Howe test, stating,

“Even assuming that the SEC could establish the first two Howey factors – that there has been an investment of money into a common enterprise – it cannot establish the third. As I-Remit’s usage of XRP reveals, XRP (1) is not used with any expectation of profit and (2) is not used because of reliance upon Ripple’s purported efforts to enhance XRP’s value.”

However, while the Amicus Brief is price positive, the Hinman speech-related documents remain the focal point.

The SEC has not turned over the Hinman documents despite the Court overruling the SEC objection to the Court denying the SEC motion to protect the William Hinman speech-related documents under the attorney-client privilege.

Initial hopes of an early settlement in response to the Court ruling have gone. Investors expect the SEC to appeal the Court ruling, which would further delay the disclosure of the docs.

XRP Price Action

At the time of writing, XRP was up 4.06% to $0.49847. A bullish start to the day saw XRP rally from an early low of $0.47828 to a high of $0.50195.

XRP broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.4986 before easing back.

Technical Indicators

XRP needs to avoid the $0.4698 pivot to break out from the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.4986 and the morning high of $0.50195. Friendly updates from the SEC v Ripple case and softer US retail sales figures should support a return to $0.50.

In the case of an extended rally, the bulls would take a run at the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.5182. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.5664.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.4503 into play. However, barring an extended sell-off, XRP should avoid sub-$0.45 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.4216. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.3733.

The EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bullish signal.

At the time of writing, XRP sat above the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.49124. The 50-day EMA pulled away from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA widening from the 200-day EMA. The signals were bullish.

A hold above the 50-day EMA would support a breakout from R1 ($0.4986) to give the bulls a run at R2 ($0.5181). However, a fall through the 50-day EMA ($0.49124) and the 100-day EMA ($0.47979) would bring the 200-day EMA ($0.45053) and S1 ($0.4503) into view.