XRP Price Forecast for 2024: Potential Breakthrough to ATH in 2024

Key Points

• XRP trailed the broader crypto market in 2023 amidst an ongoing legal battle with the SEC.
• Coinbase and Ripple wins against the SEC could propel XRP through $1.00.
• The US Presidential Elections and the evolution of the crypto-spot ETF market are other considerations for 2024.

2023 Market Overview

XRP rallied 82% in 2023, underperforming BTC and the broader crypto market. BTC jumped by 157%, with the total crypto market cap gaining 112%.

Progress toward a BTC-spot ETF market drove demand for BTC and the broader crypto market. However, SEC activity and the SEC v Ripple case left XRP trailing the broader market.

Intensifying anti-crypto rhetoric on Capitol Hill also left XRP short of the 2023 high.

SEC Legal Cases Against Crypto

The SEC has several high-profile cases extending into 2024 and beyond. These include cases against Binance, Coinbase (COIN), Kraken, Ripple, and Terraform Labs.

Significantly, the anti-crypto drive on Capitol Hill could bring more crypto-related firms to the US courts.

SEC v Ripple: Penalty for XRP sales to institutional investors

The SEC v Ripple case remains a focal point going into 2024. A court ruling on the penalty Ripple must pay XRP sales to US institutional investors needs consideration. A sizeable disgorgement could adversely affect global sentiment toward Ripple and the appetite for XRP.

The SEC and Ripple must complete remedies-related discovery by February 12, 2024. Other significant dates include,

• March 13, 2024: The SEC must file its remedy-related brief, which will argue the rationale for a punitive penalty.
• April 12, 2024: Ripple must file its remedy-related brief. The brief will argue for a significantly lower penalty than the $770 million from the sale of XRP to institutional investors.
• April 19, 2024: The SEC must file any response to the Ripple remedy-related brief. Investors will slice and dice the reply brief to assess the strength of the SEC’s arguments against Ripple’s proposals.

A penalty lower than Ripple’s legal fees of about $150 million could be price-positive for XRP.

SEC v Ripple: The Appeal Against the Programmatic Sales Ruling

The crypto market expects the SEC to appeal the Programmatic Sales ruling. In October, Judge Analisa Torres rejected the SEC motion for interlocutory appeal. In response, the SEC dropped the charges against CEO Brad Garlinghouse and co-founder Chris Larsen. An early conclusion to the case will allow the SEC to appeal against the court ruling that XRP is not a security in secondary sales on exchanges.

XRP tumbled from a 2023 high of $0.9327 to sub-$0.50 before steadying. Significantly, XRP could face selling pressure if the SEC appeals against the ruling. Uncertainty about the outcome of an appeal could return XRP to sub-$0.50. An appeal could extend the SEC v Ripple case into 2025.

SEC v Coinbase: The Motion to Dismiss

In August 2023, Coinbase filed a motion to dismiss (MTD). Coinbase argued the SEC lacks the statutory authority to regulate crypto exchanges. Judge Katherine Failla will hear oral arguments for and against the MTD on January 17, 2024.

If Judge Failla grants the Coinbase MTD, XRP, and the broader crypto market would benefit. The ruling would water down the SEC’s authority over the US crypto space. A favorable ruling could mean the SEC cannot label cryptos as securities in secondary sales on exchanges.

SEC v Coinbase: The Trial

If Judge Failla denies the MTD, XRP and the broader market could face selling pressure. Uncertainty about the outcome of an SEC v Coinbase trial could adversely impact the appetite for cryptos. The SEC v Coinbase case has far more significant ramifications for the US digital asset space.

The outcome will also materially influence sentiment toward the US crypto market. A Coinbase victory would be a boon for XRP and the broader market. However, the case may extend into 2025.

US Presidential Election and Crypto Market Impact

Intensifying US lawmaker scrutiny caused discussions about the 2024 US Presidential Election. The result of the election could have a significant impact on the US crypto regulatory landscape.

However, the Democrats and Republicans will need control of the House and the Senate to push their differing crypto agendas. A divided House and Senate across the two parties could leave the crypto market in regulatory limbo.

US Presidential Election: Republican Party Clean Sweep

In 2022, Senators Cynthia Lummis and Kirsten Gillibrand proposed the Responsible Financial Innovations Act. The Bill aims to drive innovation while protecting investors. While the Bill made no progress in 2023, it could become a market influencer in 2024.

A Republican Party clean sweep would end the threat of a crypto ban and enable lawmakers to deliver regulatory clarity.

Significantly, a Republican Party victory could end the SEC reign of regulation by enforcement. SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce could be the preferred crypto market choice as SEC Chair.

Changes in attitude toward regulating the US digital asset space would eliminate the ever-present threat of SEC lawsuits. Regarding SEC v Crypto, crypto favorable Supreme Court rulings would stand.

US Presidential Election: Democratic Party Clean Sweep

A Democratic Party clean sweep could adversely affect the US digital asset space and the crypto market.

Senator Elizabeth Warren would have free reign to push her anti-crypto agenda. Significantly, the Digital Asset Anti-Money Laundering Act could make progress. The Bill would impose banking-style regulations and crypto platforms, shuttering the US crypto market.

The Democrats would support the SEC regulation by enforcement mantra and allow SEC Chair Gensler to serve his term until 2026.

Crypto-Spot ETF Market

The successful launch of the BTC-spot ETF market would support the buyer appetite for cryptos. Increasing inflows into the crypto market could compel issuers to launch crypto-spot ETFs. In November 2023, fake news sent XRP to a high of $0.7503. Investors reacted to reports of BlackRock (BLK) filing to launch an XRP-spot ETF.

Serious plans among leading issuers to launch XRP-spot ETFs would be a boon for XRP.

Ripple Activity and XRP

Unlike listed stocks, holding XRP does not constitute ownership of Ripple, and XRP holders do not benefit from Ripple’s successes. Nonetheless, favorable Ripple news drives demand for XRP by association. In 2024, a successful Ripple IPO would drive buyer demand for XRP.

The line in the sand is $1. A myriad of driving forces could support an XRP break above $1.00.

Technical Analysis: Forecast for 2024

Looking at the long-term weekly chart, XRP broke above the 200-day SMA and 50-day SMA, sending bullish price signals. Significantly, the 50-day SMA narrowed to the 200-day SMA in Q4 2023, another bullish price signal.

Considering the trend line, XRP broke above the descending channel in May 2023. Importantly, XRP held above the trend line for the remainder of the year.

Two key resistance levels for 2024 include $0.7000 and the 2023 high of $0.9380. A break above $0.7000 would support a move to the $0.9380 resistance level.

Key focal points for the year include:

• Coinbase victory against the SEC.
• Failed SEC appeal against the Programmatic Sales ruling.
• Republican victory in the US Presidential Election.
• Launch of altcoin-spot ETFs, including XRP-spot ETFs.

In a Goldilocks scenario, a breakout from the $0.9380 resistance level would support a run at the ATH of $3.5505.

However, adverse events would support a drop below the $0.5658 support level and 200-day SMA. Buying pressure could intensify at $0.56. The 200-day SMA is confluent with the $0.5658 support level. Nonetheless, a drop below the 200-day SMA would bring the 50-day SMA and the $0.4761 support level into play.

Significantly, a drop below the $0.4761 support level would bring the trend line into view.