Ripple (XRP) Price Forecast: Traders spotted moving $280M as XRP approaches $2

Ripple (XRP) Price Analysis: 

XRP price opened trading at $1.47 on November 25, down 13% after testing a new 3-year peak of $1.63 48-hours earlier. XRP derivatives markets data trends suggests bears betting on a deeper consolidation phase for the week ahead.

XRP price retreats below $1.50 amid profit-taking

Ripple (XRP) and Bitcoin prices stalled at $1.63 and $100,000 respectively, as traders leaned into mid-cap altcoin markets, driving major tokens like Cardano (ADA) and Avalanche (AVAX) prices above key resistance levels.

In the case of XRP, the rally had accelerated on November 20, when Gary Gensler’s exit from the US SEC was confirmed.

The XRPUSD daily chart above shows how XRP price rose 50.8% from $1.07 on November 21, to hit a new yearly peak of $1.63 on November 23. But at press time on November 25, XRP has retreated 13% from those peaks, hovering around the $1.47 area.

Traders closed out $280 million positions as resistance mounts

While market sentiment remains largely bullish, top coins like BTC, ETH, XRP have stagnated while the crypto market cap surges. This suggests traders are actively re-directing capital toward mid-cap and low cap assets.

In affirmation of this stance, on-chain data shows that XRP open interest has been in a steep decline since prices retraced from the $1.63 local top, a move that could considerably delay bulls next breakout attempt towards the $2 mark.

Coinglass’ open interest metric below tracks the total value capital invested in active futures contracts positions for a specific crypto asset.

Looking at the chart above, XRP open interest hit $2.62 billion when the prices peaked at $1.63 on Nov 23. Rather than hold out for further upside, speculative traders began scaling down on their positions. At press time on Nov 25, XRP open interest has dropped off to $2.34 billion.

This shows that XRP traders closed futures contracts worth $280 million within the last 48-hours, coinciding with the mild price correction observed over the weekend.

When open interest dips during a price rally, it flashes bearish signals for 2 key reasons.

Weakened Market Confidence

When open interest decreases during a price rally, it typically indicates that traders are closing their positions rather than initiating new ones. This reflects diminishing confidence in the rally’s continuation.

For XRP, the $280 million drop in open interest since the $1.63 peak suggests that many speculators are exiting the market, possibly anticipating a near-term price correction.

Reduced Liquidity for Momentum
Lower open interest also means fewer active positions, reducing the liquidity and leverage necessary to sustain significant price movements.

Without renewed capital inflows to bolster bullish momentum, bulls may struggle to breach key resistance levels like $2. The current decline in speculative participation highlights the need for fresh catalysts to reinvigorate the market.

XRP Price Forecast: Overbought conditions could trigger $1.20 reversal

After an explosive 50% breakout in the aftermath of Gary Gensler’s exit confirmation, the $280 million outflows from XRP futures market over the last 48-hours raises major concerns.

Technical indicators  XRP/USDT daily chart reveals several bearish conditions that could potentially result in a near-term price reversal. The Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) at $1.4456 currently sits above XRP’s price of $1.4426. This signals a lack of buying pressure at current market prices.

In terms of short-term price projection, the psychological resistance at $1.50 is likely to persist within current market dynamics

Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 85.95 confirms overbought conditions, typically a precursor to price corrections. RSI levels above 70 often indicate an overextension, and with XRP nearing the $1.50 resistance zone, the risk of a pullback grows.

Traders may interpret these overbought signals as an opportunity to secure profits, which could further pressure the price downward toward $1.20 in the short term.

However, a breakout above $1.50, supported by the VWAP flipping below the current market price, would invalidate this bearish outlook.

Such a move could reinvigorate buying interest, potentially propelling price toward the $2 psychological milestone. For now, traders should monitor whether XRP can overcome its current overbought condition and reclaim bullish momentum.