XRP Price Prediction: Risk Aversion and the SEC v Ripple Case test Buyers

Key Insights:

• XRP rose by 2.21% on Monday, with a pickup in investor appetite for cryptos delivering support.
• Despite the bullish start to the week, crypto market headwinds and uncertainty over the outcome of the SEC v Ripple case limited a more meaningful breakout.
• Technical indicators are bearish, with XRP sitting below the 100-day EMA.

On Monday, XRP rose by 2.21. Following a 1.87% gain on Sunday, XRP ended the day at $0.3281. XRP fell short of $0.33 for a third consecutive day, with the bulls failing to make a dent in last week’s 10.5% reversal from $0.36.

A bearish start to the day saw XRP fall to a low of $0.3142. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level at $0.3110, XRP rallied to a high of $0.3291.

Coming up against the First Major Resistance Level at $0.3281 and resistance at $0.33, XRP ended the day at $0.3281.

Another quiet day on the SEC v Ripple news wires pinned XRP back from a more material gain.

Languishing at sub-$0.40, a return to the February current-year high of $0.9154 hinges on the SEC v Ripple case.

Former SEC Director of the Division of Corporation Finance William Hinman remains the pivotal figure in the case.

Court Ruling Delay Highlights the Importance of Hinman to the SEC Case

A pending court ruling on whether Hinman’s 2018 speech-related documents fall under the attorney-client privilege remains the key. A ruling in favor of the defendants could force the SEC to agree to settle.

In 2018, the former SEC Director of the Division of Corporation Finance said that Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are not securities.

While the SEC has filed more than six motions to shield Hinman’s speech-related documents, Hinman appears in another related lawsuit.

In December, non-profit government watchdog Empower Oversight filed a suit against the SEC. The lawsuit claimed that Hinman received millions of dollars from Simpson Thacher, his former employer. Simpson Thacher forms part of a group that promotes Enterprise Ethereum. The 2018 Hinman speech delivered ETH price support.

In April, Empower Oversight forced the SEC to release emails relevant to the SEC case against Ripple Lab. The emails related to the SEC ethics team that warned Hinman to stop meeting with Simpson Thacher.

In 2021, Hinman returned to Simpson Thacher.

While the SEC may appeal any unfavorable ruling, the chance of a settlement is high. There is speculation surrounding the content of the speech-related documents, which could put the SEC in a bad light.

With Gary Gensler already facing lawmaker scrutiny, the SEC Chair may wish to settle rather than create further friction as lawmakers look to plug the regulatory hole that plagues the crypto market.

For XRP, a favorable court ruling on the Hinman speech-related documents would justify the lengthy battle and support a return to $1.00 levels and beyond.

XRP Price Action

At the time of writing, XRP was down 0.37% to $0.3269.

A mixed start to the day saw XRP rise to an early high of $0.3304 before falling to a low of $0.3265.

XRP left the Major Support and Resistance Levels untested.

Technical Indicators

Avoiding the $0.3238 pivot would bring the First Major Resistance Level at $0.3340 into play.

XRP would need the support of the broader market to breakout from the morning high of $0.3304.

In the case of an extended crypto rally, XRP could test the Second Major Resistance Level at $0.3387 and resistance at $0.34. The Third Major Resistance Level sits at $0.3536.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level at $0.3185 into play. Barring an extended sell-off, XRP should avoid sub-$0.31 and the Second Major Support Level at $0.3089. The Third Major Support Level sits at $0.2940.

The EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) send a bearish signal.

At the time of writing, XRP sat below the 100-day EMA, currently at $0.3333. Today, the 50-day EMA narrowed to the 100-day EMA. The 100-day EMA flattened on the 200-day EMA, XRP price positive.

A move through the 100-day EMA and R1 would support a run at $0.34.

However, another XRP pullback through the 50-day EMA would bring sub-$0.32 support levels into play.