XRP to Target $0.40 on Hinman Speech Documents from SEC v Ripple Case

Key Insights:

• On Wednesday, XRP bucked the broader crypto market trend, rising by 0.94% to end the day at $0.39509.
• SEC v Ripple optimism continued providing XRP price support, while positive reaction to the FOMC meeting minutes delivered the 0.94% gain.
• The technical indicators turned bullish, signaling a return to sub-$0.40.

On Wednesday, XRP rose by 0.94%. Partially reversing a 1.73% loss from Tuesday, XRP ended the day at $0.39749. Despite the bullish session, XRP fell short of the $0.40 handle for the first time in three sessions.

A mixed start to the day saw XRP fall to an early morning low of $0.38350 before making a move. Finding support at the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.3853, XRP rallied to an early afternoon high of $0.39749. However, falling short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.3999, XRP fell back to sub-$0.39 before wrapping up the day at $0.39509.

SEC v Ripple News Delivers XRP Price Support

It was a busy mid-week session, with SEC v Ripple news drawing plenty of investor interest. Dr. Roslyn Layton was back in the news filing an amended Motion to Intervene petition for access to the Hinman speech-related documents.

Defense attorney James Filan shared the latest filing, noting that the original filing erroneously intimated that the SEC had offered the Hinman Speech Documents to support its own summary judgment motion.

Dr. Layton has written numerous articles about the Hinman Speech Documents, examining the central role those documents play in the case, which she has dubbed ‘the crypto trial of the century.’

William Hinman remains a central figure in the SEC v Ripple case. Former SEC Director of the Division of Corporation Finance William Hinman said that Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are not securities.

The contentious issue with the speech relates to Hinman’s connection with Simpson Thacher. Simpson Thacher is part of a group that promotes Enterprise Ethereum. After leaving the SEC, Hinman returned to Simpson Thacher.

A government watchdog, Empower Oversight, raised the conflict of interest issue in its case against the SEC. Empower Oversight filed against the SEC in 2021.

The SEC failed to prevent the documents from reaching the hands of the defendants. However, the SEC filed a motion to redact content from the speech. The consensus is that the SEC may prefer to settle the case against Ripple rather than allow the documents to reach the public arena.

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse shared his views on the speech-related documents, saying,

“When those come to light, I think you will see more kind of like, how is it possible for the SEC to decide to bring a case against Ripple given what they were saying within their own walls.”

The Day Ahead

Investors should continue to chatter relating to the SEC v Ripple case. Binance, FTX, and Silvergate Bank updates will also draw interest.

However, we expect SEC activity and US lawmaker chatter to remain the key driver near term, barring a ruling from the Courts on the SEC v Ripple case.

In the afternoon session, US economic indicators will also provide direction. US GDP numbers for Q4 and jobless claims will be in focus. A fall in jobless claims and upward revisions to GDP numbers could fuel Fed Fear and test buyer appetite.

The less hawkish-than-expected FOMC meeting minutes delivered XRP price support on Wednesday. However, hawkish Fed chatter could also pressure riskier assets this afternoon.

XRP Price Action

At the time of writing, XRP was down 0.60% to $0.39272. A mixed start to the day saw XRP rise to an early high of $0.39314 before falling to a low of $0.39129.

Technical Indicators

XRP needs to avoid the $0.3920 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.4006. A return to $0.40 would signal a bullish session. However, the broader crypto market and SEC v Ripple chatter would need to support a breakout.

In the case of another extended rally, XRP would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.4060 and resistance at $0.41. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.4200.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.3866 into play. However, barring an extended broad-based crypto sell-off, XRP should avoid sub-$0.3750. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.3780 should limit the downside. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.3640.

The EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bearish signal.

At the time of writing, XRP sat above the 100-day EMA, currently at $0.39194. The 50-day EMA converged on the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA widening from the 200-day EMA. The signals were bullish.

A bullish cross of the 50-day EMA through the 100-day would support a breakout from R1 ($0.4006) to target R2 ($0.4060) and $0.41. However, a fall through the EMAs would give the bears a run at $0.3866 and sub-$0.38 support levels. A fall through the 50-day EMA would send a bearish signal.