XRP Versus Bitcoin: XRP/BTC Will Likely Crash 25% by 2024

XRP (XRP) has fallen by over 40% against Bitcoin (BTC) in 2024, largely due to its close ties with Ripple, the blockchain payment firm entangled in a prolonged legal battle with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

The SEC’s latest appeal in the Ripple lawsuit has further weakened XRP’s market versus Bitcoin. The XRP/BTC pair has been down by approximately 12.25% since the court filing on Oct. 2. Things are looking even worse for the remainder of the year, with the Ripple token eyeing another 25% dip by December 2024.

XRP Enters Technical Breakdown Stage Vs. Bitcoin

The XRP/BTC trading pair recently broke out of a rising wedge pattern, signaling a potential continuation of bearish momentum.

A rising wedge is typically a bearish reversal pattern when the price consolidates between two upward-sloping, converging trendlines. In this case, the price of XRP has broken below the lower trendline of the wedge, confirming the breakdown.

The projected target, indicated by the dotted line, suggests that XRP may fall toward the 0.00006448 BTC level by December 2024, roughly 25% below current prices.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), which currently sits around 42.96, supports this bearish outlook. Although it is not yet in oversold territory—typically defined as an RSI below 30—it still points to weakening momentum, suggesting that XRP has room to decline further before reaching oversold conditions.

The downward trend in the RSI aligns with the wedge breakdown, further confirming the negative bias.

Additionally, the price is trading below key moving averages, including the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) at 0.0001072 BTC. This further emphasizes the bearish trend as XRP struggles to regain traction above this key level.

The 200-week EMA, currently at 0.0001813 BTC, continues to act as strong overhead resistance, limiting any potential upside in the near term. With all these factors combined, XRP may continue to face selling pressure, potentially finding support near the 0.00006448 BTC level.

XRP May Fall 15% Versus Dollar, As Well

The XRP/USD chart is currently forming a symmetrical triangle pattern, a structure that typically signifies a period of consolidation before a significant breakout in either direction. The triangle is defined by converging trendlines, with the upper line acting as resistance and the lower line serving as support.

Key Fibonacci retracement levels, drawn from the 2021 high of around $1.96 to the 2020 low near $0.31, provide important potential price targets.

In particular, the 0.618 Fibonacci level at $1.33 could act as a strong resistance point if XRP breaks to the upside. Similarly, the 0.5 Fibonacci level at $1.13 may also serve as resistance, with a potential rally reaching up to $1.60 or even higher if the bulls take control.

Meanwhile, XRP is trading just below its 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) at $0.55 and slightly above its 200-week EMA at $0.52. These levels are key technical points to watch, as moving above them would signal strength for the bulls.

In the event of an upside breakout, XRP could initially target the $1.13 and $1.60 resistance zones, with a potential retest of the 2021 high at $1.96 if bullish momentum accelerates.

On the downside, a break below the triangle could lead XRP to test support around $0.39, down 15% from current prices by 2024’s end. A decline toward the 2020 low near $0.31 or even lower levels around $0.24-$0.26 is also possible.